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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Outskirts of Shrewd'm / Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics
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Author: weatherman ✹  😊 😞
Number: of 314 
Subject: spaceX plus investing stuff
Date: 03/08/26 2:49 PM
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[mashup of stem, investing, and musk]

as seen elsewhere on the interweb, am curious if\how any tsla shareholders can describe a mechanism by which they will gain (in tsla shareprice or otherwise) by the spaceX ipo.
recent article in FT describes any upcoming spaceX ipo will potentially become the largest bagholder event in corporate history.
this is primarily for retail buyers at ipo, but also because musk is attempting to shortcut index inclusion by any means, legal or not. (recently, but before bitcoin tanking, microstrategy was unable to achieve its index inclusion strategy)

my own view is that we still exist in meme world, the ipo will be a massive success and free musk of tesla boredom. but i do not know if musk fanboyz have so much excess cash to also put into spaceX.

cut from FT 5 march 2026 :
"...prospective IPO investors would be expected to back a valuation >7X than the ~$200bn level recorded in October 2024. That would qualify as an astonishing re-rating in any market.
With these numbers and with the SpaceX and xAI combination happening almost concurrently with the expected IPO, investors must make comic-book heroic assumptions about sustained hypergrowth to justify a $1.75tn market cap. The media have been guided to expect 2026 revenues of $22-24bn, and given the likely mid-year timing, investors will be pointed to 2027 projections...
Even taking those forecasts at face value, we are aware of no serious company ever having gone public at anything close to the EV/Sales multiple apparently being contemplated here.
(Facebook, for example, went public on 11 times EV/forwardyear sales.) This would be a moonshot valuation inspired by a healthy dose of moonshine. Success hinges on the premise that Musk’s personal brand, the lack of terrestrial competitors, and unbounded retail enthusiasm can propel the offering off the launchpad and into deep space..."
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