No. of Recommendations: 21
...(and acknowledge that Jim has been saying SPY is overvalued for a decade)...
I try always to say merely that it is more overvalued than the historical average on several metrics, which is pretty clear.
Whether that means "overvalued" is more in the eye of the beholder!
The US market might stay at these valuation multiples for decades, so maybe this is the new normal, not "overvaluation". Personally I am dubious, but that's just the eye of this beholder.
One of my long time detractors once said that he'd never seen a post of mine that wasn't in one sense a wager on mean reversion.
That's probably pretty close to true. But mean reversion of one type or another is a good enough wager often enough that I make a pretty good living.
Heck, even BFH and KMX have had a good week.
On the other hand, Hershey at $183.50 still seems to be the dog of the day. Not super cheap in a conventional sense, (between 19 and 20 times current earnings), but certainly super cheap compared to their own history...yet another mean reversion bet!
Jim
