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- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks T / Tesla (TSLA)
No. of Recommendations: 0
No. of Recommendations: 2
I stopped reading the valuation analysis after I went to the autonomous driving section and the author said that people weren't ready for autonomy.
Go to this short interview (11 min) of Ron Baron for the bull case on TSLA. Starts about two minutes in:
https://www.marketwatch.com/video/investor-ron-bar...The bear case is pretty simple too: Tesla loses in auto, FSD, robotics (automation), lithium mining, insurance, Supercharger, battery production, Dojo (AWS for robots) and battery storage. Certainly possible.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I stopped reading the valuation analysis after I went to the autonomous driving section and the author said that people weren't ready for autonomy.
Do you mean this?
"In addition, it seems clear to me that the Tesla robotaxi business has now moved from possible to plausible on my scale, and thus merits being taken seriously. On the minus side, I do agree that the world is not quite ready for driverless cars, on scale, and that rushing the product to market can be catastrophic."
Seems reasonable.
The bear case is pretty simple too: Tesla loses in auto, FSD, robotics (automation), lithium mining, insurance, Supercharger, battery production, Dojo (AWS for robots) and battery storage. Certainly possible.
I didn't think Damodaran was giving a bear case. Did you?
No. of Recommendations: 1
According to Elon, "almost all of Tesla's value is in AI and robotics." I 100% agree with that statement. If someone's analysis only considers Robotaxi "plausible," then we fundamentally disagree about the business we're even in. That's where I started and stopped reading the analysis. (IMO, Robotaxi isn't plausible, it's inevitable.)
Recently, the capability of AI has been improving by roughly 400%/year; 200% in software and 200% in hardware. Yesterday, Elon said that in 2024 that rate was going up to 1,000%/year. (See Dojo.) I wouldn't ask a financial analyst what that means for TSLA any more than I would ask my dentist ... they aren't equipped. They use the tools they have but they're the wrong tools.
No. of Recommendations: 1
'I wouldn't ask a financial analyst what that means for TSLA any more than I would ask my dentist ... they aren't equipped. They use the tools they have but they're the wrong tools.'
Yeah, that's an interesting perspective, thanks.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Damodaran: "At $197 a share, Tesla remains over valued, at least based on my story, but a stock that has dropped $54 in price in the last few weeks could very well drop another $20 in the next few. To capture that possibility, I have a limit buy at my estimated value of $180, with the acceptance that it may never hit that price in this iteration."
I wonder if Damodaran kept his limit order? If so, he owns some Tesla again.
I'm reading the Elon biography. It's a good read, recommended.
