Invite ye felawes and frendes desirous in gold to enter the gates of Shrewd'm, for they will thanke ye later.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 24
Average
Month Begin Quarter End Repurchase
Price (P) Book Value P/BV Price (ARP) ARP/BV
September 501.14 323.62 1.55 - -
August 472.84 323.62 1.46 - -
July 489.61 323.62 1.51 - -
June 485.77 309.64 1.57 - -
May 503.96 309.64 1.63 - -
April 533.25 309.64 1.72 - -
March 532.58 303.37 1.76 - -
February 513.83 303.37 1.69 - -
January (2025) 468.67 303.37 1.54 - -
December 453.28 300.98 1.51 - -
November 483.02 300.98 1.60 - -
October 450.92 300.98 1.50 - -
September 460.26 291.72 1.58 - -
August 475.92 291.72 1.63 - -
July 438.50 291.72 1.50 - -
June 406.80 282.92 1.44 - -
May 414.40 282.92 1.46 417.79 1.48
April 396.73 282.92 1.40 413.87 1.46
March 420.52 265.08 1.59 415.47 1.57
February 409.40 265.08 1.54 414.12 1.56
January (2024) 383.74 265.08 1.45 370.08 1.40
December 356.66 259.58 1.37 360.71 1.39
November 360.00 259.58 1.39 355.27 1.37
October 341.33 259.58 1.31 348.50 1.34
September 350.30 242.28 1.45 366.42 1.51
August 360.20 242.28 1.49 361.16 1.49
July 351.96 242.28 1.45 347.62 1.43
June 341.00 248.64 1.37 335.55 1.35
May 321.08 248.64 1.29 329.00 1.32
April 328.55 248.64 1.32 308.57 1.24
March 308.77 231.95 1.33 308.51 1.33
February 305.18 231.95 1.32 306.07 1.32
January (2023) 311.52 231.95 1.34 312.92 1.35
2025-3Q BV Calculation
Shareholder's Equity: 698,155 million
Quarterend A Shares: 1,438,223
BRKA BV: (698,155,000,000)/1,438,223 = 485,429
BRKB BV: 485,429/1500 = 323.62
No. of Recommendations: 1
Thank you very much for the table.
I have one small suggestion for improvement: P/BV should only be determined on the basis of the data known at the time.
For example, in July, no one knew what the book value would be at the end of September.
Then you can also compare the current price to known BV with historical values.
(It would certainly be helpful to know the volume of buybacks, but that would be a lot of work...)
No. of Recommendations: 4
Thanks for this.
The zero buybacks this quarter is another piece of data to suggest average B-level purchases are the better proxy for what BRK views as a reasonable discount to fair value (if the ratio is guiding decision-making or is a good proxy for / roughly correlates with the data that would be driving the decision).
During the quarter, the A-level maximum ratio would give a buy signal at $485.31, based upon the prior maximum ratio (1.567). The B-level $458.14. That's basically the difference between yes or no to buybacks for the quarter, and they went with no.
The current expected buy signals based on prior ratios are:
Max ratio A * last rep BK $507.22
Max ratio B * last rep BK $478.83
I'm guessing we'll see our first buybacks this quarter if at or below the second figure for material amounts of time.
No. of Recommendations: 4
Thanks Baybrooke
Here are some longer term numbers for perspective.
Price/Book Ratio:
2001 1.95
2002 1.74
2003 1.67
2004 1.57
2005 1.49
2006 1.56
2007 1.81
2008 1.37
2009 1.17
2010 1.26
2011 1.15
2012 1.17
2013 1.32
2014 1.55
2015 1.27
2016 1.42
2017 1.41
2018 1.44
2019 1.30** (Buffett begins buying in earnest)
2020 1.21
2021 1.32
My thoughts are:
Buying at current prices is kind of a mediocre investment, on an historical basis and I am mindful of the outrageous move into Apple Buffett made, which is unlikely to be repeated due to size and perhaps Greg Abel maybe being less aggressive than Buffett in future…
No. of Recommendations: 3
Looking at the table, it sure seems like 2010-2013 period was a huge missed opportunity for buybacks.
No. of Recommendations: 4
BNSF was a big allocation at $44 billion in 2010…
No. of Recommendations: 10
The repurchase algorithm is likely more than just "anything below xBook", it likely looks like this.
1) Is there excess cash? --> Yes
2) Are there any attractive investments --> No
3) Is BRK cheap --> Not yet
So if you want to create a table, I would also include the SP500 trailing PE as a proxy for "any attractive investments".
tecmo
...
No. of Recommendations: 3
The repurchase algorithm is likely more than just "anything below xBook", it likely looks like this.
1) Is there excess cash? --> Yes
2) Are there any attractive investments --> No
3) Is BRK cheap --> Not yet
Also, "Is BRK cheap" is probably not "is it below xBook". Buffett told us how to value Berkshire:
"I believe Berkshire’s intrinsic value can be approximated by summing the values of our four asset-laden groves and then subtracting an appropriate amount for taxes eventually payable on the sale of marketable securities."
