Elon Musk’s newly public SpaceX is set to report second-quarter results after the close of trading on Tuesday, and investors are anticipating something wild. It’s hard to know what to expect from the commercial space company that also has satellites and AI. The stock will likely be volatile.

 
• The $1.4 trillion company was a $3 trillion company just a few weeks ago, valued at 35 times estimated 2026 sales, led by the world’s richest human. Cantor Fitzgerald’s Colin Canfield characterized this first quarter as suffering from an “extreme estimate skew.”

 
• SpaceX reports in three segments: Space, Connectivity, and AI. The launch franchise is readying the huge Starship rocket for commercial service. Starlink, the satellite operations, connects more than 10 million users. The AI business has two data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi.

 
• The AI business generated first-quarter 2026 revenue of $818 million and an operating loss of $2.5 billion. Capital spending was $7.7 billion. Those are the three numbers to watch. SpaceX signed AI data center rental agreements with Anthropic and Google. The Google agreement hasn’t started yet.

 
• Canfield expects a solid quarter with better-than-expected earnings guidance. Overall, Wall Street expects revenue of $6.9 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or Ebitda, of $2.1 billion. For the full year, Wall Street projects sales of $39 billion and Ebitda of $17.3 billion.

 
What’s Next: Investors will likely be looking for guidance from the company on the AI outlook for the rest of the year and into 2027, and on when SpaceX plans to start testing its idea to put low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit using Starship.

 
—Al Root