Post #8386 by Mark on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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Over the next 5 years will the S&P 500 with an earnings yield of 3.5% outperform 3-month T-Bills with a yield-to-maturity of 5.4%? How about BRK-B?

Well, there's no way to know for sure. First of all, the 13-week T-bill is 5.337% now, but will be lower later this year, and even lower next year, and likely lower for the next few years. It is very likely that the S&P500 and Berkshire will outperform T-bills over 5 years. However, we haven't had a real recession since 2009, and that's a long time, so we are kind of due for a recession. Some people believe that recessions have been "cured" forever by using Federal Reserve supplied money judiciously, but those people are almost definitely wrong.

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