Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (46) |
Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 22353 
Subject: Re: BAC
Date: 07/06/23 7:48 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 22
I started "Value Investing from Graham to Buffett and Beyond", by Greenwald et al, on my vacation and my initial impression was "I wonder if mungofitch is one of the et al's"

Other way around!
I just spout the stuff I learned there, over and over. At best I rephrase it my own way.


I really dislike the conventional formulae for valuing growth which they mention. (I'm working from memory here).

I prefer something simple, which doesn't give silly answers with infinite growth horizons or negative interest rates.
My fave:
What's the "pretty darned sure" real EPS on average 5-10 years from now, what multiple do you expect at that time so what is the annualized rate of return that implies?
I use ([Future multiple] X [future average EPS 5-10 years out]) ^ (1/7.5) - 1, annualizing it to the middle of the future earnings era.
If that rate of return looks good to you, buy it!
I recommend never assuming the future multiples will be higher than the teens, i.e. max 19.
I don't think any firm is so predictable that high growth (and valuation to match) can be counted on to be existing a decade in the future.

The nice thing is that it works for all kinds of companies, from dead end cash cows to currently-unprofitable sellers of future stories.

You can turn it around, if you want a real return of X%/year from here, what rate of growth of EPS will do it starting from this price?
Does the rate of earnings growth sound plausible enough that you'd call it "pretty darned sure"?
This backwards view only works for firms that are already profitable.

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,861 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (46) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community