No. of Recommendations: 3
Any reason for the 150 target, specifically? I'm curious because I started a small position today.
I considered factors like 1) lead & cadmium levels 2) child labor in the cacao supply chain 3) structural brand and purchasing changes in consumers 4) general overvaluation in the market and 5) climate change impact. 5 is my biggest concern (cocoa future pricing data supports this), but it isn't company specific and HSY may have advantages relative to competitors from their scale and resources.
I don't know how to predict impact from GLP-1 agonists. I don't try to follow pharma/biotech closely but it looks like an earlier but still widely used semaglutide injectable (Saxenda) is coming off patent protection next summer and generic makers are going to go after that market. Drug costs are a problem, and biologics are intrinsically more expensive to manufacture. My impression was that side effects were not negligible. Anecdotally, I have seen people continue to struggle with overeating while taking them.
I convinced myself to start the position by finding one of the many long term p/e charts for HSY (
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/11/03/i-paid-m...) and it really is near the bottom of a well established range. The 2.5% yield looks reasonable, and the short ratio data doesn't raise red flags.
