Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MacroBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (16) |
Author: OrmontUS ✭✹  😊 😞
Number: of 4582 
Subject: Re: Overmatched: the U.S. military
Date: 12/08/25 11:30 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
One of the Chinese strategies in the Chinese sea is to fire so many missiles and rockets hopefully the defense is overwhelmed, some get through and sink or disable the ship.
__________________________________________________

This strategy can be watched nightly as Russia fires about 125 drones/missiles but also hoards them for a weekly (+/-) attack with 500-760 at a single time.

While our training may be better, China has a vast depth of personnel and equipment. Back during the Korean War they made it clear that both their shorter logistic train and their superior manpower made the challenges of a decisive defeat (desired by the "China lobby" who was funded by the Nationalist government in exile (Taiwan).

The recently released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) prioritizes our interests in the Western Hemisphere and our recent actions show a disdain for small boats which break our laws (whatever they happen to be).

At the same time, it reads like a policy designed to separate us from the obligation to defend Western Europe against the potential aggression of Russia, in exchange for profitable business deals between our oligarchs and Russia's and suggests our European "allies" boost there defense spending if they want their interests protected.

It also says it prioritizes deterring a conflict over Taiwan by building military strength and demanding more from allies, emphasizing a "favorable conventional military balance" to counter China, stressing no unilateral status quo changes, and viewing Taiwan as vital for controlling the First Island Chain, a key strategy to restrict Chinese Pacific access, requiring allies like Japan & South Korea to boost their defense spending.

This seems to me like we are now assigning spheres of influence. The US will take what it wants in the Americas (presumably including Canada and Greenland), Russia can have what it wants in Ukraine and, some day, in Europe. I expect that China will be able to justify blowing up ships in the South China Sea which irk them by pointing to our precedent. At some point, it will not serve Japan's and Australia's interests to get into a war with China over Taiwan - and I suspect that the US would back off from a direct confrontation as well.

Wee are rapidly recasting the world (and our society, in ways) to the policies at the turn of the 20th century and I'm guessing that, in order to replicate the "Gilded Age", we will no longer be able to afford foreign adventures.

The next few years will possibly be the most transformative that the US has had in nearly a century - good, bad or ugly remains to be seen.

Jeff

PS: Two interesting war books:
The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War, by David Halberstam
December 6: A Novel, by Martin Cruz Smith
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to OrmontUS here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 4,571 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
AI Tarpits · 36 recs · 2026
End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
Control Panel: Trend changes in 2026 · 34 recs · 2026
From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (16) |


Announcements
Macroeconomic Trends & Risks FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Macro | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community