Post #4727 by zeelotes on the Mechanical Investing board

Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing

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This is updated to 12/23/2025. There are no changes in the signals since the last move to all three being Bull on 11/28/2025.

FYI: GTR1 has lost access to one of its most important data providers making it impossible to update since 11/28/2025. Signals I post are based on my original work on the bear catchers and my own software.

https://www.zeelotes.org/2025-12-23_BCC.PNG

  Date    Signal  SMA   NH/NL  DBE
20251128    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20251031    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250813    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20250801    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250626    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20250617    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250604    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20250508    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250409    4     Bear  Bear   Bull
20250207    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250205    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20250131    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250130    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20250129    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250124    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20250108    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20250103    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20241213    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20241125    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20241118    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20241105    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20241031    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20241014    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20241001    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240916    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240904    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240821    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240802    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240712    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240523    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240506    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240404    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240321    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240314    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240208    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240205    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20240129    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20240111    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20231201    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20230804    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20230728    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20230727    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20230711    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20230623    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20230608    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20230607    6     Bear  Bull   Bull
20230602    4     Bear  Bear   Bull
20230403    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20230313    4     Bear  Bear   Bull
20230308    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20230221    4     Bear  Bear   Bull
20230201    6     Bear  Bull   Bull
20230111    2     Bear  Bull   Bear
20220822    0     Bear  Bear   Bear
20220805    2     Bear  Bull   Bear
20220525    0     Bear  Bear   Bear
20220428    4     Bear  Bear   Bull
20220331    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20220324    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20211118    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20211013    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20211004    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20210825    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20210817    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20210721    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20210716    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20201103    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20201030    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20200930    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20200923    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20200720    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20200710    3     Bull  Bull   Bear
20200528    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20200417    6     Bear  Bull   Bull
20200316    4     Bear  Bear   Bull
20200225    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20200204    7     Bull  Bull   Bull
20200131    5     Bull  Bear   Bull
20200102    7     Bull  Bull   Bull

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I must be misunderstanding something, because it appears to me that NH/NL has been bearish since December 17.

https://schrts.co/PxJHavky

What am I getting wrong?

Thanks,

JRB

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JR wrote: I must be misunderstanding something, because it appears to me that NH/NL has been bearish since December 17.

I'm pretty sure I was the one that originally shared this indicator with the MI Board. What I shared was based on using a 9-Day Weighted Moving Average (WMA). What you've posted is using an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). I've never done a comparison between the two, so I cannot vouch for whether an EMA works as well or better or worse.

This is what a 9-Day WMA looks like applied to a variety of universes.

https://www.zeelotes.org/NH-NL_BC2.PNG

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Zee said:
What I shared was based on using a 9-Day Weighted Moving Average (WMA). What you've posted is using an Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

Using a different style MA would account for different signals. I went back and calculated the WMA-9 on the StockCharts data (they only provide SMA and EMA, which is probably why the link I got had EMA). The formula I'm using for WMA is (V1*9+V2*8+...V8*2+V9)/45, where V1 is the latest value.

Here's what I see:

Date      NH-NL      SMA-9       WMA-9       EMA-9 
10/31/25    -67                                    
11/3/25     -53                                    
11/4/25    -227                                    
11/5/25     -94                                    
11/6/25    -194                                    
11/7/25    -323                                    
11/10/25     54                                    
11/11/25     40                                    
11/12/25     78     (87.33)     (60.84)     (25.22)
11/13/25   -172     (99.00)     (77.78)     (54.58)
11/14/25   -286    (124.89)    (115.18)    (100.86)
11/17/25   -312    (134.33)    (152.60)    (143.09)
11/18/25   -333    (160.89)    (192.33)    (181.07)
11/19/25   -300    (172.67)    (220.16)    (204.86)
11/20/25   -357    (176.44)    (257.02)    (235.29)
11/21/25   -347    (221.00)    (291.13)    (257.63)
11/24/25     -1    (225.56)    (247.13)    (206.30)
11/25/25     97    (223.44)    (182.62)    (145.64)
11/26/25    184    (183.89)    (101.13)     (79.71)
11/28/25    131    (137.56)     (38.16)     (37.57)
12/1/25       9    (101.89)      (8.84)     (28.26)
12/2/25     -32     (68.44)       5.13      (29.01)
12/3/25      87     (25.44)      36.22       (5.80)
12/4/25     152      31.11       71.71       25.76 
12/5/25     166      88.11       98.69       53.81 
12/8/25     100      99.33      101.07       63.04 
12/9/25      54      94.56       92.00       61.24 
12/10/25    230      99.67      119.09       94.99 
12/11/25    265     114.56      152.16      128.99 
12/12/25     90     123.56      147.24      121.19 
12/15/25    -91     117.00      104.33       78.75 
12/16/25   -158      89.78       49.33       31.40 
12/17/25   -165      54.56       (1.62)      (7.88)
12/18/25   -106      24.33      (33.73)     (27.50)
12/19/25    -74       5.00      (53.40)     (36.80)
12/22/25     45       4.00      (45.40)     (20.44)
12/23/25    -49     (27.00)     (56.00)     (26.15)
12/24/25    -15     (58.11)     (53.60)     (23.92)

From this it looks like the WMA also went negative on December 17. Either I'm doing something wrong or the data is bad. Can you help set me straight?

Thanks,

JRB

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JR.B asked: From this it looks like the WMA also went negative on December 17. Either I'm doing something wrong or the data is bad. Can you help set me straight?

Nasdaq or NYSE data is going to differ dramatically between sources. This is certainly true, though, I would not necessarily consider the data "bad." Rather, I think once you determine which data source to use you stick to that source.

I've put together a spreadsheet that compares a number of sources so that you can see them all in one place.

On another note, though, it does depend on the threshold you use for determining a BULL or BEAR condition.

You can download the ss if you so desire - I've put it on my blog under Downloads and Timing Indicators: Bear Catcher - Nasdaq NH-NL

https://www.zeelotes.org/blog

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Zee said: Nasdaq or NYSE data is going to differ dramatically between sources.

I was trying to generate the BCC signals using open source data, due to GTR1 being out of date. It has become clear to me that I am unable to replicate the NH-NL signals accurately. The best I can do is to get a general sense of where the indicator appears to be.

I, for one, would appreciate if you continued to post the BCC until GTR1 is healthy again.

Thanks for all you do,

JRB

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JR wrote: It has become clear to me that I am unable to replicate the NH-NL signals accurately.

Many rely on the data from Barron's which can be easily obtained here: https://www.barrons.com/market-data/market-lab?

You'll find the data you need in this table. Of course, you'd have to go there every few days to get the data, or if you want signals every day, daily. I'd say it is very doable!

Nasdaq                                                         
Daily          12/22/2025  12/23/2025  12/24/2025  12/25/2025  12/26/2025
Issues Traded  4,910       4,954       4,800       ...         4,867
Advances       2,945       1,855       2,870       ...         2,040
Declines       1,824       2,918       1,692       ...         2,615
Unchanged      141         181         238         ...         212
New Highs      186         154         151         ...         140
New Lows       152         212         176         ...         198

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