No. of Recommendations: 4
Based on your study, the only choice that beats B&H is GTT 43. It improved overall CAGR by 0.2%. Hardly worth the trouble IMO, if you can stand the higher volatility.
Correct.
But...
the purpose of timing is not to increase the CAGR -- although many people think (erroneously) that's the purpose. And then bail when it turns out to not improve returns.
No, the purpose of timing is to trim the drawdowns and reduce the volatility.
As I noted, if your goal is to reduce volatility, then it can make some sense. But I view that as an emotional crutch more than anything else.
Actually, timing is not particularly beneficial in the accumulation years. The period when timing is mostly beneficial is in the retirement/withdrawal years. Because there is not enough time to recover from the loss periods.
On the flip side, as people advance through retirement their desire and ability to constantly monitor the market and trade periodically is diminished due to deteriorating health. And at any age, timing has tax and friction consequences.
