No. of Recommendations: 18
jim,
per other post, you seem to assert the real (industrial) economy is burnt.
Well, "burnt" is strong. I see it as pretty much incontrovertible that a reasonable expectation of the aggregate profits of the world's companies in the next 15 years is materially lower than the reasonable expectation was a week or month ago. Lower doesn't mean zero of course, just...lower. Stock prices have gone down, but I do not think it is a certainty that world stocks are any cheaper than they were, as I think the true IV has gone down too.
As for equity markets, there are two other multiplicative effects to consider.
* The geopolitical situation - it is not, shall we say, "normal" for the US to behave as an expansionist empire claiming land currently within the boundaries of several former allies. Ferengi rules of acquisition #35.
* The fact that we are going into this with pretty extraordinary US equity valuation levels
This isn't saying that the world's equity markets are going to drop soon, nor how far if they do, since the future is uncertain. But the omens are not good. My gut feel is a bounce soon (because the urge to buy on dips takes a while to burn itself out), followed by a substantially longer and deeper real bear market at some point. But my gut feel isn't worth much, as I ate some questionable choices at dinnertime.
Jim
