No. of Recommendations: 8
Not dishonest, just an opinion. Different opinions make markets. M* fair prices seem to follow after the market price (market price goes up then the fair price goes up), maybe M* is hedging the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) by incorporating the market price into their fair price estimate. (Many economists reject the "Strong Form" of EMH while still debating the "Weak" and "Semi-Strong" forms, based on research showing insiders generally outperform the market.)
There are mutual funds that use M* fair prices, for example VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF MOAT. MOAT 10-year return of 15.3% is in the top quartile of mutual funds. Unfortunately, MOAT was not around in 2008 when the EMH was tested. Most of the "10 Solid Wide-Moat Funds" listed in 2018 had negative alpha.
M* is now saying NKE is underpriced:
$67.47 NKE market price close 12/12/2025
$104 M* fair value
$88.55 gurufocus Gvalue
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/NKE/summary?search...=== links ===
10 Solid Wide-Moat Funds, Sep 19, 2018
Here are the 10 mutual funds with the highest average moat ratings as of their latest portfolios. POLIX LSGRX MPGFX JENIX DGAGX YACKX YAFFX VDIGX AMANX MIGFX
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/10-solid-wide-m...Factor regression results from Sep 2018 to Aug 2025 (from portfoliovisualizer):
Ticker Rm-Rf SMB HML MOM Alpha Name
POLIX 1.02 -0.18 -0.34 -0.10 -0.25% Polen Growth Institutional
JENIX 0.87 -0.27 -0.02 -0.01 -0.19% Jensen Quality Growth I
DGAGX 0.97 -0.31 -0.04 -0.02 -0.18% BNY Mellon Appreciation Investor
VDIGX 0.80 -0.25 0.16 0.07 -0.14% Vanguard Dividend Growth Inv
AMANX 0.83 -0.23 0.06 0.05 -0.14% Amana Income Investor
MIGFX 0.96 -0.24 -0.07 -0.04 -0.06% MFS Massachusetts Inv Gr Stk A
MPGFX 0.93 -0.04 0.00 -0.04 -0.04% Mairs&Power Growth
YAFFX 0.72 -0.04 0.26 -0.09 -0.04% AMG Yacktman Focused N
YACKX 0.71 -0.03 0.29 -0.07 0.00% AMG Yacktman I
LSGRX 1.01 -0.15 -0.33 -0.14 0.20% Loomis Sayles Growth Y
VFINX 0.98 -0.15 0.01 -0.01 -0.01% Vanguard 500 Index Investor
FCNTX 1.04 -0.20 -0.23 0.04 0.08% Fidelity Contrafund
Author: huddaman
Subject: Re: OT: Morningstar
Date: 3/25/2020
"Morningstar created an index called "Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Total Return Index". This index uses star ratings (actually they use market value /fair value estimate) to add remove stocks into this index every quarter. ... MOAT that tracks the above index. ... Basically, what I am suggesting is, dont bet the farm on single pick from M* even if it has a market value/fairvalue ratio of 0.25 (CLB currently). Unless you are feeling lucky!"
https://yorickm.com/Message.php?pid=34450726Efficient-market hypothesis
"The 2008 financial crisis led to renewed scrutiny and criticism of the hypothesis. Market strategist Jeremy Grantham said the EMH was responsible for the 2008 financial crisis, claiming that belief in the hypothesis caused financial leaders to have a "chronic underestimation of the dangers of asset bubbles breaking". Financial journalist Roger Lowenstein said "The upside of the current Great Recession is that it could drive a stake through the heart of the academic nostrum known as the efficient-market hypothesis." Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker said "It should be clear that among the causes of the recent financial crisis was an unjustified faith in rational expectations, market efficiencies, and the techniques of modern finance." In a 2009 article published on the Financial Analysts Journal, Laurence B. Siegel wrote that "By 2007–2009, you had to be a fanatic to believe in the literal truth of the EMH.""
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hyp...Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2013
"In the 1960s, Eugene Fama demonstrated that stock price movements are impossible to predict in the short-term and that new information affects prices almost immediately, which means that the market is efficient."
https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-science... 