No. of Recommendations: 1
I definitely disagree with the idea that you couldn't predict the stocks were over valued or that they would crash. I think in most cases you can see when a stock is very over valued, now what you can't predict IMO is how long and how far the over valuation will continue. We've seen for decades. The Internet stocks were over valued, many had no profits at all, and then they crashed in 2000-2001. Anyone claiming Saul's stocks were not over valued is just not being honest with themselves.
Amazon had a long, strong run with seriously high valuations until now. Dropped 50% and still trades around a PE of 77. Some will continue to hope those stocks get back to what they think is normal prices but that rarely happens.
My biggest flaw is I always under estimate how long and high fads will go so I usually miss out on them but at least I don't have to deal with the severe drops. Sure someone who got in at the ground floor may still have a big profit but that is a rare individual. There was a person that posted over at Bogleheads about a year ago with his run of Tesla options and what his goal was before he would sell and retire. I want to say $10M. Obviously he has lost of ton from his peak. Unlike many posters he has provided updates at times.
For those curious the link is:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3...Rich
