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Author: EarlyRetiree   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 5:38 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 20
https://www.reddit.com/r/Geico/comments/1dvoinl/to...

It looks like Todd is quite unpopular at Geico. Maybe just because he is cutting too many jobs, but there seem to be other issues as well which should at least be on our radar.

E.g. the fact that Geico is losing the battle with Progressive.

His investments have also performed below average. I especially point to the fact that he apparently was sucked into the tech bubble right at the worst time.

"He has now underperformed these broader indices going on in
private tech investing right before the recent profitless tech bubble burst, getting suckered in right at the top... he invested in Paytm in India for huge losses over a period of time when the broader markets were up a ton. His position in Nubank has generated relatively mediocre returns. He invested in the IPO of Snowflake - a sweetheart IPOallocation in the hottest thing in tech."

https://x.com/CDMCapital/status/183828656086258485...

How can he manage $20B with the necessary care while turning around Geico and keep his board seats at JPM, Duracell, PCP?

Personally, I believe Buffett should provide more disclosure on the performance of his successors.

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Author: hclasvegas   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 7:14 AM
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" Personally, I believe Buffett should provide more disclosure on the performance of his successors."

Thanks for sharing that info. Obviously, selective disclosure is always a very bad idea. Welcome to the brkville doghouse, I'll make room for you!
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Author: Urspider   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 7:42 AM
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Anyone ever see cheers from employees (and former employees) for cutting bloat when a company engages in large layoffs?

jk

p.s. looks like progress to me.
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Author: rogermunibond   😊 😞
Number: of 15059 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 9:34 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 18
Todd has been called in to fix the issues that probably grew for a long time under beloved CEO Tony Nicely.

Warren for his part probably turned a blind eye to these issues.

The gap for example in IT investment between GEICO and Progressive is enormous. Where was the CEO or Board oversight that saw that free cash flow needed to be invested technological and analytical capabilities in the business rather than funneled up to Omaha?

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Author: Calguy489   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 11:59 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
LOL. You're basing this on a Redditt board? I guarantee every company has people who have issues at their work.
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Author: Umm 🐝 HONORARY
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 4:33 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 16
"Todd has been called in to fix the issues that probably grew for a long time under beloved CEO Tony Nicely.

Warren for his part probably turned a blind eye to these issues.

The gap for example in IT investment between GEICO and Progressive is enormous. Where was the CEO or Board oversight that saw that free cash flow needed to be invested technological and analytical capabilities in the business rather than funneled up to Omaha?"


When Warren says that he is hands off when it comes to the subs and lets them run the business as they see fit (reputational matters notwithstanding), he genuinely means that. That is for better or for worse. On one hand, it attracts talented CEOs to the subs who enjoy the independence, on the other, occasionally a sub will flounder a little and will need to be cleaned up.

You cannot declare that the subs are given free rein to run their business and then have the board looking over their shoulders telling them how to run the business and invest in technology.

Yes, GEICO is far behind Progressive. That is not a death knell though. The business can be cleaned up and technology improved. That is what makes GEICO such a great business to invest in though. Even when it was falling behind and not investing, it was still putting up profits. Maybe not great profits, but not getting destroyed either.
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Author: LongTermBRK   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 5:31 PM
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This is old analysis as it was the case a year ago. According to Ajit that gap with Progressive has been reduced a lot, GEICO is doing much better with Telematics specifically and seeing strong results from its recent large investments in technology in general. GEICO just came off a stellar, much improved Quarter. Still work to be done, but GEICO is the Comeback Kid in 2024. And, yes, lay-offs aren’t fun and hurt morale.
.
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 6:24 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 6
According to Ajit that gap with Progressive has been reduced a lot, GEICO is doing much better with Telematics specifically and seeing strong results from its recent large investments in technology in general. GEICO just came off a stellar, much improved Quarter. Still work to be done, but GEICO is the Comeback Kid in 2024.


This is an interesting question, and prompted me to watch the clip answering this question at this year's annual meeting: https://www.google.com/search?q=jain+progressive+g... (worthwhile 5-minute listen, btw)

It doesn't entirely contradict what you say about GEICO narrowing the gap, but I get the impression from Jain's comments that this is really a work in progress. He says at one point that this has been an advantage Progressive has had over GEICO for several years, and that at GEICO "...we are trying to still play catch-up. Technology is something that is unfortunately a bottleneck, but then again, we are making progress. But equally importantly, we have hired people that are much better than what they inherited, ... Yes I realize we are still behind, we're taking steps to bridge the gap, and hopefully by the, certainly by the end of '25, we should be able to be along with the best of players when it comes to data analytics."

Buffett added that GEICO has the lowest cost thing and it "does have to do a better job of matching rate to risk, but our low costs have masked the fact that, for a while, we could do without progressing as much as we should have in the matching of rate to risk, and now, Todd has been working intensively at that and he's made a lot of progress, but there's still work to be done."

My thoughts are that once they catch up with the technology, it may be another decade before they can really realize all the benefits of that technology - low risk drivers that have gone to Progressive to get better rates will be the hardest to get back, since they're already paying very low rates.

dtb
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Author: LongTermBRK   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 6:35 PM
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You are correct. But when I compare what Jain said most recently with what he said last year, it was far more upbeat. Positively, GEICOs made a lot of progress. Negatively-a lot more work to do.
Both Jain and Buffett were much more upbeat on GEICO this year vs. last.
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Author: BRKNut   😊 😞
Number: of 48448 
Subject: Re: Some serious criticism of Todd Combs
Date: 09/24/2024 7:38 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 3
There’s this too. The world thinks of Ajit as the master of estimating risk probability and pricing it. What’s glossed over is the fact that Ajit has created the giant float at BHI with a staff of about 20 or so. It’s astounding. Surely he’s spotted the over staffing at the rest of the insurance fold. GenRe had been flagged in the past.

I’d chalk it up to Ajit, the culling. It surely that Combs actually has worked at Progressive in the past.
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