The high growth expectations are already baked into the stock's price. To overperform, the company would have to exceed the high expectations. This is difficult. I would expect a backtest to show that moderate growth stocks do better.

What is "reasonably valued"? In backtests, momentum often boosts returns. Buying low-momentum stocks does not seem to work in general.

Just based on a straight average of S&P 500 stocks, the Healthcare and IT sectors have the highest average estimated growth (future 5-years). Consumer Staples and REIT have the lowest average estimated growth.

Ticker        Company Name        [Sector]  [SalesY1]  [Growth]  [sectGro]  [Mo]  [sectMo]          Sector
  UNH      UNITEDHEALTH GROUP        35       400,278      5         19     -46     7.2           Health Care
 AAPL           APPLE INC            45       416,161     12         17      21     22.0    Information Technology
  DOW           DOW INC              15        42,964    -13         14     -45     -5.3          Materials
  JPM     JP MORGAN CHASE & CO       40       166,775      8         13      26     5.0           Financials
GOOGL       ALPHABET INC CL A        50       350,018     15         12      82     2.9     Communication Services
  UPS     UNITED PARCEL SERVICE      20        91,070      5         12     -24     5.0           Industrials
  XOM       EXXON MOBIL CORP         10       340,568     12         11       0     -0.9            Energy
 AMZN        AMAZON COM INC          25       637,959     18         10      12     6.8     Consumer Discretionary
  DUK       DUKE ENERGY CORP         55        29,934      7         8       11     14.8          Utilities
  AMT   AMERICAN TOWER CORP REIT     60        10,127     23         6       -8     -7.8          Real Estate
  WMT         WALMART INC            30       680,985      8         4       21     -3.5       Consumer Staples

https://gtr1.net/2013/?~SectorGrowthEstimate25a:h2...

Create [Mo]: [Total Return % over 252 days]
Create [Growth]: [SI EPS Growth Est]
Create [Sector]: [SI TRBC 2 Digits]
Create [sectGro]: [Average [Growth], grouped by [Sector], at step5]
Create [sectMo]: [Average [Mo], grouped by [Sector], at step5]
step0: [S&P 500 Member; lag=1 days] == 1
step1 to step6 are deblanking
step7 keeps largest SalesY1 in each Sector.

Mechanical Investing FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.