No. of Recommendations: 6
Berkshire Hathaway $BRK $BRK.B has underperformed $SPY by 25% since I sold in early 2024, back to 1.4x book. Is it a buy? What are future returns?
Earnings, including look-thru, get around $56B in GAAP NI/year, 5.5% earnings yield.
What does OpCo business growth add? Between 2022-25, non-insurance OpCo NI growth has been 1%. But Berkshire has needed $50 billion in cumulative investment to achieve the 1%! ($30B M&A+$20B Net CapEx.) When do we consider that Berkshire's collection of businesses, in aggregative, bottom tier?
Berkshire BV grew 12% since 2020. But half of this was $AAPL.
I think Berkshire returning 6-7% from here is best case. Am I being unfair? How? I'd like to see math on how they do 8%+ going forward.
https://x.com/FishtownCap/status/20458952028423050...would be sincerely interested in opinions on this.
