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- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy❤
No. of Recommendations: 9
Every day, BRK-B marches up.
Market up? BRK up.
Market down? BRK up.
Every day, up 4-6 points.
Latest P/B is 1.6. IIRC, BRK's P/B generally swings between 1.35 and 1.55 and its well beyond that now.
How high is it going to go? And how fast will the fall be, when it stumbles? 'course the other question is, Who is doing all this buying?
I now look back and regret selling my DITM calls when P/B hit 1.5 with BRKB at 383, but who knew.
No. of Recommendations: 7
First and definitely foremost, I believe that the chance of permanent capital loss for patient Berkshire
shareholders is as low as can be found among single-company investments. That’s because our per-share
intrinsic business value is almost certain to advance over time.
This cheery prediction comes, however, with an important caution: If an investor’s entry point into
Berkshire stock is unusually high – at a price, say, approaching double book value, which Berkshire shares
have occasionally reached – it may well be many years before the investor can realize a profit. In other
words, a sound investment can morph into a rash speculation if it is bought at an elevated price. Berkshire
is not exempt from this truth.
Purchases of Berkshire that investors make at a price modestly above the level at which the company
would repurchase its shares, however, should produce gains within a reasonable period of time. Berkshire’s
directors will only authorize repurchases at a price they believe to be well below intrinsic value.
This is from Buffett's 'The next 50 Years at Berkshire'- while we are not at double book value, and I recognize that book value is not what it used to be, we are above the midpoint at 1.63+/book, midpoint meaning back when Buffett wrote this the thinking was he would repurchase at 1.2x or less, of course now he has repurchased in the 1.4's- clearly he has not bought recently in size and sitting on tons of cash- so he is telling us that we are not at bargain prices.
Doesn't mean the stock goes down- he may repurchase at a higher nominal price actually
No. of Recommendations: 5
The media really needs the shares to trade to $464 so they can release their articles on the Trillion dollar club's newest member.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I wouldn’t mind seeing that article
No. of Recommendations: 5
I remember a while back when things peaked at 430/B and then fell back...I thought I missed an opportunity. And here we are. I haven't sold any in a long time. Won't need any for living expenses until a few years from now...when I will begin selling 5% of shares per year.
As things go up I'm tempted to sell some....but the only thing I'd be confident doing with the proceeds are T bills or money market....and BRK will beat those over long haul.
No. of Recommendations: 6
Latest P/B is 1.6. IIRC, BRK's P/B generally swings between 1.35 and 1.55 and its well beyond that now.
About a year ago Berkshire traded at $420.56, a P/B of 1.74 (book was $242.28).
How high is it going to go?
Using current book $279.20 multiplied by 1.74 the price could reach $485.81. That's the price I'd sell. Or write covered calls for (although I haven't done that yet).
No. of Recommendations: 1
The highest I remember it went was 2.6 BV back in 2007
No. of Recommendations: 15
The highest I remember it went was 2.6 BV back in 2007
Not quite...highest since Feb 2004 has been 1.93 times known book, using daily close.
Yeah, I remember that 2007 spike. It lasted for about ten minutes, right after people thought "we should move to safety" but right before they though "oh poop I need cash NOW".
(the ten minutes is figurative, it closed above 1.9 times book for 5 trading days in early December 2007)
The current move is shaping up to be somewhat memorable.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
Jim, thank for the clarification.For some reason I recalled a large spike up around that time.
No. of Recommendations: 2
The media really needs the shares to trade to $464 so they can release their articles on the Trillion dollar club's newest member.
On CNBC Judge Wapner went around the table for their final picks, and Josh Brown yelled, “Berkshire Hathaway, all time high!” There’s your latest talking head cheerleader adding to the public momentum, so we may well see that price in the next day or so. Let’s get ready to breakout a bottle of Château Margaux 1937!
Using current book $279.20 multiplied by 1.74 the price could reach $485.81.
Pulling forward a bit, at the end of September, would a fair BV be approximately 286 and change? At today’s price of $461.61, as I write, P/BV would be about 1.61 or so? Eh…not too nosebleed yet.
No. of Recommendations: 1
About a year ago Berkshire traded at $420.56, a P/B of 1.74 (book was $242.28)
Are you sure about that, last year it peaked at around 370 per B- I don't remember a P/B of 1.74 since GFC- but I could be wrong.
No. of Recommendations: 2
No. of Recommendations: 3
Are you sure about that, last year it peaked at around 370 per B- I don't remember a P/B of 1.74 since GFC- but I could be wrong.
It was actually this year.
On February 23rd 2024, the day before the Q4 2023 report, Berkshire hit $420.56. Third quarter 2023 B/V was $242.28.
242.28/420.56 = 1.74 P/B
No. of Recommendations: 1
5 years ago what are people’s thought about COSTCO? It now has the same PE as perhaps NVDA? Ok, maybe not NVDA (PE 70) but close. Who would have thought of that?
No. of Recommendations: 2
5 years ago what are people’s thought about COSTCO? It now has the same PE as perhaps NVDA? Ok, maybe not NVDA (PE 70) but close. Who would have thought of that?
It's why I just trim positions now. I never want to be completely out of great companies I like. Too many times I have sold because of valuation and never get a chance to get back in.
No. of Recommendations: 4
No. of Recommendations: 2
Here is a chart of the historical P/B:
https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/BRK.B/value/p...It shows max P/B was 1.82, average 1.42
You can download the data, but the dates are not regular, sometimes 1 day between rows, sometimes several months.
Interestingly, it shows total 20 yr return of BRK 692% vs. SPY 646%.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Interestingly, it shows total 20 yr return of BRK 692% vs. SPY 646%.
A difference of 46% of starting capital but only 2.6% difference in ending capital. That's pretty much noise.
No. of Recommendations: 0
About a year ago Berkshire traded at $420.56
I'm pretty sure that throughout 2023, it didn't trade above 400. I would remember because I was selling puts almost monthly (in hopes of snagging some shares at good prices. They all expired worthless except for the March 305s that were exercised and assigned to me near their expiration. Later in the year (2023), I gave up on my attempts at acquiring shares via put sales and instead just bought outright in the 340s and 350s in November and December.
No. of Recommendations: 9
We hit one trillion. Now what?!
No. of Recommendations: 5
1.1t
No. of Recommendations: 3
Today, 466.
It is going to take a huge loss to get back to where it was just a month ago.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Just like 13%? Not really that huge. Certainly within the realm of possibilities, I would think?
I’m hoping for a correction actually, since I’ve sold almost all the Berkshire in my IRA over the last month. I’ve traded in and out in this IRA for years and done pretty well, but never sold this much. 😳
