No. of Recommendations: 9
I don't fault your valuation; on paper it makes sense. I arrive at a lower valuation, because I assign a substantial discount (15-20%) for conglomerate complexity and management credibility. I do this because, this doesn't seem to be a short-term issue, but has persisted over many years, even decades. The market price almost never seems to come close to IV. So I don't anticipate that Mr. Market will close the discount. I believe many value investors do this as well and demand a much greater margin of safety, say 50% instead of 30%.
Even companies with far more credible management like Berkshire suffer from a conglomerate/complexity discount, though a smaller one. This has been narrowing lately, after Buffett made substantial repurchases.
I believe closed-end funds are in some ways similar to BN. They tend to always trade at a discount. The fund sponsors rake in the fees, so have no incentive to liquidate the funds or buy back shares. The discount never goes away unless an activist boots out the management.
Unless Brookfield management, on its own or through activist pressure, implements a substantial share repurchase, I don't expect the discount to narrow much.
