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Canadians are now using an app ("Maple Scan") to identify American products and identify Canadian alternatives. This would have been unthinkable before; now that it's here, I bet it won't ever go away.
https://maplescan.ca/

Canadians are now using an app ("Maple Scan") to identify American products and identify Canadian alternatives. This would have been unthinkable before; now that it's here, I bet it won't ever go away.
https://maplescan.ca/



I am skeptical that "it won't ever go away" - consumers will look for the best value (price); if foreign products are more expensive they will chose the domestic one; if not they will continue to buy the foreign one.

tecmo
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I am skeptical that "it won't ever go away" - consumers will look for the best value (price); if foreign products are more expensive they will chose the domestic one; if not they will continue to buy the foreign one.

For most consumers, you're probably right.
But how many in "the west" are buying any Russian made goods these days? (yes, there are some) Price isn't always the determinant.

I spent a good hour today looking for non-US suppliers of some electronic devices I was about to buy from the US, and I expect to pay more.

This isn't a snit over the precise level of softwood duties in violation of WTO rulings, it's a bald declaration by foreigners of firm intent to conquer and annex one's country. I expect trust can't return to prior levels in my lifetime. Read about Benedict Arnold's attempt to take over Quebec in 1775-76; the bad blood lasted for generations. Not counting the bad blood of General Montgomery, which probably dissipated quickly into the snow. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Death_of_General...

Jim

This isn't a snit over the precise level of softwood duties in violation of WTO rulings, it's a bald declaration by foreigners of firm intent to conquer and annex one's country. I expect trust can't return to prior levels in my lifetime.

As a Canadian living in the US I will admit the level of anger might be a blind spot for me; but I view most of this as temporary.

tecmo
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for anyone that has never been disappointed by the cheapest crap on sale...
please live it up a little.

I am skeptical that "it won't ever go away"

I see it as the rough equivalent of the "Made In America" campaign which (albeit reduced) still remains in play and has even gotten to the "Made in <state>" level in some locations.

As a Canadian living in the US I will admit the level of anger might be a blind spot for me; but I view most of this as temporary.

Certainly our situations are different.

I have no particular anger, more just things on my "to do" list to adjust to the new and permanent reality.

If the US takes over Canada, the government's firmly stated intent, there will be no such thing as Canadian citizenship. I won't ever take US citizenship, so I'd be stateless. I wouldn't be able to get a bank account without a valid passport. These are not small concerns. I'm not interested in being any part of an expansionist empire, nor supporting it. You may feel differently. (though I definitely wouldn't currently advise leaving the US and trying to return)

I'm the first to admit that these thoughts all sounds really extreme, but they are all pretty minimal minimal rational reactions to actual news items. The extremeness isn't the reaction, it's the news items. If you're in the US, living behind the Orange Curtain, maybe it sounds a lot more normal, but trust me, that's just the news bubble effect. The US is now a declared ally of Russia and North Korea (UN vote etc), and a declared adversary of Canada and the EU, and of what was once called "the West". Many people may not agree with their government's stance, but in the end that's not very relevant, any more than the opinions of those in Russia who aren't fans of Mr Putin: you have to live with it.

I think the US exported around $3.2 trillion dollars worth of stuff last year. If my circle of worldwide contacts is at all representative, that is about to drop like a stone. There are only about 75 out of thousands of goods categories for which the US supplies over 50% of international supply, so for most things the world can do without. There is no US-source product I wouldn't pay twice (or 3X) for if I can find an alternative. China is acting like the adult in the room and, relatively speaking, standing up for the rules based international order. How times change.

Jim

I'm the first to admit that these thoughts all sounds really extreme, but they are all pretty minimal minimal rational reactions to actual news items

Yes, it sounds really extreme.


I have already travelled to Canada and back several times; without any issue; and 10,000s of others are doing the same every day. For those of us with valid immigration status the current situation is no different from the past X (10s for me) years.

I would put the chances of a US take over of Canada at the closest possible value to 0 that I can, it is much higher than it was before the election, but that is because of a divide by zero issue; not because the risk is worth worrying about.

Also, I have family in Canada; and even read news from the CBC, so I am not entirely in the bubble, but I think most of this is under the "hurt feelings" vs. a meaningful impact on day to day living.

tecmo
...

BTW: My feelings are hurt a bit.

If the US takes over Canada, the government's firmly stated intent, there will be no such thing as Canadian citizenship. I won't ever take US citizenship, so I'd be stateless. I wouldn't be able to get a bank account without a valid passport. These are not small concerns.

Even if it's not probable, the fact that it is POSSIBLE is earth shaking on its own. There is much that I thought was never possible that now is, and has me concerned. Things that have us researching our options.

IP

For those of us with valid immigration status the current situation is no different from the past X (10s for me) years.

These days you have valid status until it is simply revoked. At a whim. Don't get too comfy.

IP

Even if it's not probable, the fact that it is POSSIBLE is earth shaking on its own. There is much that I thought was never possible that now is, and has me concerned. Things that have us researching our options.

That seems a bit irrational to me. Or at least, a bit indulging in what feels good, rather than an appropriate response to risk. People are very bad at assessing very low-probability risks, and I think this is an example of one.

To illustrate, a typical Canadian is far more likely to choke to death during the next few years than to see their country taken over by the U.S. and become stateless. It's not probable - in fact, it's exceptionally unlikely. But it is POSSIBLE. And there's something you can do about it! It's perfectly possible to switch to an all-liquid diet, which would eliminate the chance of this improbable, but life-ending, event from happening to you! And it would likely have far less disruption on your life than the steps necessary to emigrate.

But you're not considering switching to an all-liquid diet. Neither is mungofitch, I assume. Because even though it's far more likely that you'll die from choking than end up a stateless refugee after Canada is eliminated as a sovereign state, you don't draw any other utility from contemplating that outcome and "researching your options" on how to prevent it. Both choking and the dissolution of Canada are so unlikely that they're not worth taking major steps to prevent them - but latter is more emotionally resonant to think about.

These days you have valid status until it is simply revoked. At a whim. Don't get too comfy.


It's always been the case. For non-citizens, living in the US is privilege.

tecmo
...

That seems a bit irrational to me. Or at least, a bit indulging in what feels good, rather than an appropriate response to risk. People are very bad at assessing very low-probability risks, and I think this is an example of one.

I understand your thinking that, in large part because I have not shared our risk factors. YMMV. Even with two toddlers in tow, and a gene bank from just about every European country, I would repeatedly get stopped at customs coming back to the mainland, as far back as early 2000's. Customs officials would approach me speaking Spanish, asking for documentation, even before I approached security check in. I played the dumb American and put a flustered look on my face, declaring I didn't understand, (though I did,) and did they speak English? Invariably, they basically said never mind, and waved me on at that point. DH's genetics adds even more complications. I look at what has happened here in the US to his family, in not so distant history, (while acknowledging that Canada's solution to the same factors was even worse,) and seeing how restraints are off POTUS, he considers himself immune from consequences, and things are as he defines them. While he may indeed eventually get restrained, that is of little solace to those who find themselves without merit rotting in El Salvador in the process. Oh wait, that's going on now!

When your family experiences history, you are not bound to ignore the rhymes you hear.

IP

I'd be stateless. I wouldn't be able to get a bank account without a valid passport.

That's not correct. It depends on where you live. I have a friend in Germany who IS stateless. Nevertheless he has a bank account, credit card, health insurance, had an IT company, with Siemens as it's main customer etc. etc.

If you're in the US, living behind the Orange Curtain

I used to be every year in Southern France, Haute Alpes, Provence, Var etc. Last time is too long ago. Next time I want to meet the guy who just caused me having a fit of laughter.

Canadians are now using an app ("Maple Scan") to identify American products and identify Canadian alternatives. This would have been unthinkable before; now that it's here, I bet it won't ever go away.

Several years ago I tried to get an app developer to create one to identify those products which were environmentally unsound or products of the evil billionaire class. (Shorthand for the Koch, Murdoch, etc dynasties.)

It would have also had tab for “environmental concerns”, “political”, and so on.

Couldn’t get anyone interested and dropped it. Wonder if it’s time to try again.

I understand your thinking that, in large part because I have not shared our risk factors.

Ah, my mistake - on quick reading, I saw your post as reiterating mungofitch's concern about Canada being subsumed into the United States. Since I'm not a regular on this board, I assumed you were Canadian worrying about the loss of Canada - rather than talking about other risks that may be significantly larger (if still unlikely) than that incredibly remote event.

People are very bad at assessing very low-probability risks, and I think this is an example of one.
To illustrate, a typical Canadian is far more likely to choke to death during the next few years than to see their country taken over by the U.S. and become stateless. It's not probable - in fact, it's exceptionally unlikely. But it is POSSIBLE. And there's something you can do about it! It's perfectly possible to switch to an all-liquid diet, which would eliminate the chance of this improbable, but life-ending, event from happening to you! And it would likely have far less disruption on your life than the steps necessary to emigrate.

It's entirely reasonable for different people to have different coolly considered estimates of the likelihood of remote outcomes: differences don't mean someone is over or under reacting.


Some of my estimates:

Chances that the US claims dominion over additional territory in the next decade: 10-20%.

Chances of a free-and-fair and constitution-compliant US presidential election in 2028: under 90%.

Chances of US citizens perceived as opponents of the administration being jailed without credible evidence: no comment.

Chances that the US will side with the aggressor in a war of conquest, three separate times: 50/50.

Chances that US financial assets or accounts of non-US persons will be subject to large new restrictions like capital controls, punitive capital gains withholding taxes, or forced devaluation or default: 50/50.
Or 100%, if you count the recent rule for listed LLPs: 100% of the sale proceeds of any interest is now deemed as a taxable gain, regardless of cost basis.

Chances of the US fully honouring Article 5 of NATO if called upon to do so: Under 20%.
(noting that the only time it was ever invoked, the country to whom allied support was provided was the US)

Chances that you personally will get meaningfully detained crossing into the US with a valid visa, and/or have that visa revoked: 1 in 5000??



I'm not angry about any of those things per se, it would be like being angry at the weather. But a little disgusted, and a little stressed at the planning and changes needed to adapt. Bullet proofing my portfolio is taking a lot of time and effort.

Jim

I have a friend in Germany who IS stateless. Nevertheless he has a bank account, credit card, health insurance, had an IT company, with Siemens as it's main customer etc. etc.

I think (?) German law, like French, has a bank account as a right.

But in some countries, it ain't like that.
For example, last I heard there was only one bank left in Monaco (of 24) that will accept an American as a client, even WITH full passport and ID. This includes joint accounts for a couple where one is American. Forget it if you're stateless. The anti money laundering regulations would make it impossible to do any of the financial transactions I've done this year without a valid passport.

It's possible, even likely, that some sympathetic country would offer citizenship to those who have Canadian passports. I believe most Canadians have at least one parent or grandparent born somewhere else.

Jim

Chances of US citizens perceived as opponents of the administration being jailed without credible evidence: no comment.

All you have to do is look at the internment camps for Japanese ancestry during WWII to see the possibility. (No such treatment for those of German descent, being visibly undetectable as different.) Including those who had been US citizens for generations and born here. Happily, these days we are not at war with Japan, but all too often here in the US, Asian is Asian, and the tariff war with China could be enough. With the introduction of El Salvador and disappearing "dangerous criminals," as defined by the orange one and without due process, the risk becomes higher.

If a dozen people had to guess as to the country of origin of our kids, you would get a dozen different answers. If they are allowed to open their mouths, it would be quite clear. Both our families came to this part of the world in 1700.

IP,
hearing endless rhyming of history and it's not romantic poetry

The challenge is that our response to uncertainty (qualitative) is dramatically more painful than our response to risk (quantitative).

Jim's numbers imply "risk", but if you examine them, demonstrate uncertainty. I don't disagree with most of his assessments and frankly am examining options from within the forest. That said, it is the uncertainty of the near term economic actions of the US (and its reflection in China's actions) which is giving conniptions to the equity, bond and forex markets.

Mimicking Jim's whistling as one walks past the graveyard, yesterday I picked up modest positions in four equities with the expectation that the world is not about to end forever (RIO ADR's which were selling at a discount to the RIO.asx which I already own, re-acquiring some VALE which I felt was over-bleeding, and a couple of somewhat bloodied US companies; Amazon and NVIDIA). So far, so good. but the total of the positions are not enough to really move the needle.

The renegotiation of trade deals is not necessarily a bad thing, but forcing them by blackmail and extortion against the rest of the world simultaneously is.

One of the challenges for me personally is when I am informed by my fellow countrypeople that "It's about time we have a good businessman running the country instead of politicians - I trust his business acumen". As a businessman, my word WAS my bond. I signed contracts all the time, but they really weren't necessary, as to me, a deal was a deal, and I was going to complete my agreement, contract or no contract. I find it appalling that people would award someone who clearly will abandon any agreement as soon as it no longer met his immediate needs with the title of "good businessman". This zig-zagging in his approach to the global trade crisis he created is not necesarily designed to create chaotic uncertainty, but that's the result when our apparent autocrat is shooting from the hip at whatever shiny object attracts his attention without knowlege of the subject and without planning.

Jeff

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