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Both gold and Bitcoin are on the rise. One would expect this sort of action during a period of concern about existential events to currency or personal safety - neither of which seem imminent to most of the Western world (though hysteria can certainly affect people's feelings).

I just came across this (biased source, but presumably accurate information):

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61826

Moscow plans to cut funding for its federal aircraft and helicopter production program by 1.6 times in 2026, from 139.6 billion rubles ($1.7 billion) to 85.7 billion rubles ($1 billion), according to Russian media, citing a draft of the new federal budget for 2026-2028.

The budget proposal shows that spending will continue to decline in 2027, dropping 21% from previously planned levels – from 109.7 billion rubles ($1.3 billion) to 86.9 billion rubles ($1 billion). A slight increase is projected in 2028, with allocations rising to 89.3 billion rubles ($1.1 billion).

One of the most significant reductions will affect state subsidies for Russian airlines to renew their domestic fleets. These payments will be cut to zero in 2026, compared to 1.3 billion rubles ($16 million) allocated in 2025, already down from the originally planned 4.1 billion ($50 million).

Support to offset aircraft maintenance costs will also be reduced, from 6.1 billion rubles ($75 million) in 2025 to 3.6 billion ($44 million) in 2026. However, the figure is expected to rebound to 6.6 billion rubles ($81 million) in 2027 and 2028.
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I'm wondering if counterparties which provide goods and services who are not willing to barter for oil (and considering Russia's difficulty in getting large quantities of USD) may be demanding gold (or Bitcoin) as payment.

Source: World Gold Council: Gold Reserves in Russia remained unchanged at 2329.63 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2025 from 2329.63 Tonnes in the first quarter of 2025. Gold Reserves in Russia averaged 1181.88 Tonnes from 2000 until 2025 (March 2025, valued at over 228 billion USD.), reaching an all time high of 2335.85 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2024 and a record low of 343.41 Tonnes in the second quarter of 2000.

In the context of the costs of the Ukraine war (and considering that, since presumably these numbers were reported by the Russian state and might be obfuscated) they might be having a substantial burn rate.

Just an idle thought - what do you think?

Jeff

While it's obviously a small part of the cost of the war to Russia, I was curious what the cost of a night's worth of missiles was (not including launchers, personnel, etc., so with the help of the Comet browser's Perplexity AI, I fed an arbitrary night's (last night's attack) hardware into it and asked it to calculate the acquisition cost.
Spoiler alert: the hardware used came to about $100M USD. Since this seems to be a rather large raid, let's figure it as a third of a week's supply. That would mean the expense of the Russian hardware for this portion of the war (excluding logistics, personnel, launchers etc.) would come to about 100 X 3 X 52 = $15.6B USD (or about three quarters of what the US is using to buy Argentine pesos in a currency swap). I suspect that the defense against these plus the damage cause by those that got through the defense caused at least the equivalent amount of money on the Ukrainian side.

Jeff

Overnight Russia launched 465 strike drones of Shahed, Herbera and other types, 2 aeroballistic missiles Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, 14 ballistic missiles Iskander-M/KN-23, 12 cruise missiles Iskander-K, 4 guided aviation missiles Kh-59/69, - Ukrainian air forces

Here are cost estimates for the types and numbers of Russian drones and missiles cited in the recent attack, using the most current and consensus figures from defense analysts and Ukrainian sources:

Drone Costs
Shahed strike drones (465 units):

Estimated at $50,000–$70,000 each in 2025.​

Total: $23.25–$32.55 million

Herbera (Gerbera) drones:

About $10,000 each.​

If a portion of the 465 are Gerberas (exact breakdown unknown), for those units: $10,000 per drone

Missile Costs
Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles (2 units):

$10 million each.​

Total: $20 million

Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles (14 units):

$3 million each.​​

Total: $42 million

Iskander-K cruise missiles (12 units):

$1 million each.​

Total: $12 million

Kh-59/69 guided aviation missiles (4 units):

$500,000 each.​

Total: $2 million

Grand Totals (Estimates)
The precise split of Shahed vs. Herbera among the 465 drones is not published, so here are two scenarios:

If all 465 are Shaheds:
Drones: $23.25–$32.55 million

Missiles: $76 million

Combined total: $99.25–$108.55 million

If 400 are Shahed and 65 are Herbera:
Shahed: $20–$28 million

Herbera: $0.65 million

Missiles: $76 million

Combined total: $96.65–$104.65 million

These calculations reflect only hardware cost; actual Russian expenditures (including logistics, targeting, and integration) could be higher.​​

Weapon Type.........Number......Unit Cost Total Cost
Shahed drones...........465....$50K–$70K........$23.25M–$32.55M
Herbera (Gerbera)..unknown...$10K...............—
Kinzhal (Kh-47M2)....2............$10M........$20M
Iskander-M/KN-23....14.........$3M........$42M
Iskander-K................12..........$1M........$12M
Kh-59/Kh-69................4.......$0.5M........$2M

The attack’s total material cost is approximately $100 million, depending on the precise drone mix and final procurement prices.​​

The attack’s total material cost is approximately $100 million, depending on the precise drone mix and final procurement prices.

From the handful of videos I saw on the Ukraine side, there is a lot higher cost of the dams & powerplants and infrastructure destroyed.
Most of the videos were taken by Ukrainians using cell phones. It's pretty dramatic when there is a big flash (or two or a dozen) on the horizon and suddenly all the streetlights and apartment building lights go out.

Ugh.

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