No. of Recommendations: 0
Asked Gemini to predict whether MSFT would beat or miss consensus earnings based historical trends and other fundamental trends.
Response:
"Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to report its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results this week, on Wednesday, January 28, 2026, after the market close. Historically, Microsoft is one of the most consistent "beat" stories in the technology sector, having exceeded earnings per share (EPS) estimates in 15 of the last 16 quarters.
Microsoft Quarterly Earnings Analysis (Last 4 Years)
The following table tracks the performance of Microsoft against Wall Street consensus estimates. Microsoft’s fiscal year ends in June, so "Q1 2026" corresponds to the calendar quarter ending September 30, 2025.
Fiscal Report Date Actual Consensus Beat/Miss % Actual Revenue Beat/Miss %
Q1 2026 Oct 29, 2025 $4.13 $3.65 +13.15% $77.70B +3.2%
Q4 2025 Jul 30, 2025 $3.65 $3.35 +8.96% $76.40B +3.5%
Q3 2025 Apr 30, 2025 $3.46 $3.20 +8.13% $70.07B +2.2%
Q2 2025 Jan 29, 2025 $3.23 $3.11 +3.86% $69.60B +1.0%
Q1 2025 Oct 30, 2024 $3.30 $3.08 +7.14% $65.60B +1.6%
Q4 2024 Jul 30, 2024 $2.95 $2.90 +1.72% $64.70B +0.5%
Q3 2024 Apr 25, 2024 $2.94 $2.81 +4.63% $61.86B +1.5%
Q2 2024 Jan 30, 2024 $2.93 $2.76 +6.16% $62.00B +1.5%
Q1 2024 Oct 24, 2023 $2.99 $2.65 +12.83% $56.50B +3.6%
Q4 2023 Jul 25, 2023 $2.69 $2.54 +5.91% $56.20B +1.3%
Q3 2023 Apr 25, 2023 $2.45 $2.22 +10.36% $52.90B +3.7%
Q2 2023 Jan 24, 2023 $2.32 $2.27 +2.20% $52.70B +0.6%
Q1 2023 Oct 25, 2022 $2.35 $2.29 +2.62% $50.12B +0.9%
Q4 2022 Jul 26, 2022 $2.23 $2.28 -2.19% $51.87B -1.1%
Q3 2022 Apr 26, 2022 $2.22 $2.18 +1.83% $49.36B +1.1%
Q2 2022 Jan 25, 2022 $2.48 $2.29 +8.30% $51.73B +1.8%
Prediction for Q2 2026 (Reporting Jan 28, 2026)
Wall Street consensus currently sits at an EPS of $3.88 and Revenue of $80.23 billion.
Predicted Result: A Beat
EPS Prediction: $4.15 – $4.20 (~7% to 8% beat)
Revenue Prediction: $81.8B – $82.4B (~2% to 3% beat)
Rationale:
AI Monetization Tailwinds: Throughout 2025, Microsoft successfully transitioned "AI hype" into "AI revenue" via Azure and Copilot. Recent checks show that Azure constant currency growth remains robust (expected ~36-39%), consistently outperforming conservative guidance.
Historical Average: Over the last four quarters, Microsoft has averaged an earnings surprise of 8.53%. Given that analysts have held the $3.88 estimate steady for the last 30 days despite strong Ignite 2025 product launches (Agent 365), the "whisper" number is likely higher.
Efficiency Gains: Microsoft has been aggressive with cost management and data center power-saving innovations, which typically lead to margin expansion that exceeds analyst models. "
