Invite ye felawes and frendes desirous in gold to enter the gates of Shrewd'm, for they will thanke ye later.
- Manlobbi
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 4
Greg has been in charge of operations since 2018 or so.
BNSF is not performing as well as it could or should. This has been the narrative and the numbers back it up.
No. of Recommendations: 14
BNSF is not performing as well as it could or should. This has been the narrative and the numbers back it up.
I suspect the numbers story is a bit more complicated than that. Off the top of my head, a couple of factors to look into might include the fact that they aren't fans of "precision railroading" which generally involves treating clients badly, and the fact that there was a big surge (now ended) in coal shipments.
The good news is that they'll still be making money a century from now, and there won't be any more competitors than there are now.
The bad news is that inflation is a perennial problem in this business. Maintenance capex rises in real terms.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 7
Agree with Jim. I'll add that the other railroads obsession with precision railroading and OR maxed out as to running up stock prices years ago. A new focus is needed, one of actual business growth, something long overdue.
No. of Recommendations: 3
The good news is that they'll still be making money a century from now, and there won't be any more competitors than there are now.
Ah. So you are bearish on the development of teleportation? Or at least on bulk teleportation?
R:?
No. of Recommendations: 7
Ah. So you are bearish on the development of teleportation? Or at least on bulk teleportation?
A megaton of nuclear weapon yield is about 47 grams of mass converted to energy. (Yes, the reality is more complicated, but humor me.) A short ton is 907185 grams. So if we convert that into energy for teleportation and there is a failure, we've just unleashed, 19,000+ megatons of yield. That's going to put a hurting on everything within line of sight. So yes, I'm bearish on teleportation.
No. of Recommendations: 4
The good news is that they'll still be making money a century from now, and there won't be any more competitors than there are now.
Mild disagreement. Self driving 18 wheelers, if successful at scale, will take some market share, depending on price and reliability. They won’t handle the really huge volumes that a railroad can, and there are certain segments that just don’t work as well (grains, coal, etc.) but for many commercial products, especially those going to retail, it’s a simple end-to-end solution rather than a load on the car, load off the car, transfer and drive to the distribution center, or even store to store within a distribution area.
It will all depend on relative price, of course, and it’s possible that self-driving trucks (whether diesel or electric) could be faster by eliminating a couple steps (and waits) in the distribution process. That could help some manufacturers where time-to-market is relevant to stay closer to trends and react more quickly. Maybe like fast-fashion? I’d guess some “really fast” bypass railroads altogether (iPhones, other tech) and it’s not likely they could get those in sufficient numbers to move the needle even with precision railroading or other improvements, but I’d hazard an opinion that there’s some level of product that could be vulnerable.
And self-driving trucks, while expensive, require nowhere near the capital investment that “starting a new railroad” (practicably impossible) or even retrofitting a current one would take. That new segment is pretty much a ‘buy one at a time’ and build out the network as you wish kind of thing. I expect it to grow pretty well once it proves itself.
Other than that, they are desperately vulnerable to the overall economy (isn’t everyone?) and if it’s slowing, it’s hard to imagine them ramping up profits, unless there are gross inefficiencies already that I’m not aware of.
No. of Recommendations: 0
<<Ah. So you are bearish on the development of teleportation? Or at least on bulk teleportation?
A megaton of nuclear weapon yield is about 47 grams of mass converted to energy. (Yes, the reality is more complicated, but humor me.) A short ton is 907185 grams. So if we convert that into energy for teleportation and there is a failure, we've just unleashed, 19,000+ megatons of yield. That's going to put a hurting on everything within line of sight. So yes, I'm bearish on teleportation.>>
this is how teleportation would work in the future: many physical stuffs including biological beings could be digitized, transported electronically, and reconstructed at the receiving end.
No. of Recommendations: 17
many physical stuffs including biological beings could be digitized, transported electronically, and reconstructed at the receiving end.
I hope they figure out how to multiplex the stream, because there are 10^(27), or over a septillion molecules in the human body, so it’s gonna be a long process doing them single file.
But since the overwhelming majority of us is H20, maybe they’ll just leave that at the source and reconstitute us with new water at the destination. “Fresh human, not from concentrate”. That would speed things up.
Think I’ll trademark that, just in case.
No. of Recommendations: 1
<<I hope they figure out how to multiplex the stream, because there are 10^(27), or over a septillion molecules in the human body, so it’s gonna be a long process doing them single file.>>
a mere thousand years ago, to imagine that images can be scanned and transmitted electronically, and reconstructed at the receiving end is as insane as imagine humans can be teleported electronically today. Theoretical feasibility is good enough, the rest will be history.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Well, they'd better make sure the sending body is destroyed. Otherwise there will be two identical copies, each one believing that they are the one true person.
Come to think of of, I recall reading a Science Fiction book or story along that line many years ago. IIRC, a sinister criminal organization used it as a replicator to create slaves.
No. of Recommendations: 7
But since the overwhelming majority of us is H20, maybe they’ll just leave that at the source and reconstitute us with new water at the destination. “Fresh human, not from concentrate”. That would speed things up.
In our role-playing game group, sometimes you can find a potion shop selling dehydrated water. Perfect for those long desert trips, so much space/mass savings! Surprised this hasn't caught on in the real world yet.
No. of Recommendations: 5
this is how teleportation would work in the future: many physical stuffs including biological beings could be digitized, transported electronically, and reconstructed at the receiving end.
This is [still] science fiction.
I hope they figure out how to multiplex the stream, because there are 10^(27), or over a septillion molecules in the human body, so it’s gonna be a long process doing them single file.
And this may be why it'll remain science fiction for quite some time or forever (depending on the true rules of physics). Even if you could represent each molecule with one photon (or one whatever unit, and you can't, you might need millions to represent some molecules), and even if you can transmit at the speed of light (in theory the fastest possible), it will take a LOT of time to "transmit" all that digitally. And keep in mind, it isn't just the molecules that have to be represented, the EXACT position, orientation, and connections of EACH molecule needs to also be represented. Furthermore, the EXACT configuration must be "recorded" instantly, so it can all be put back together correctly, because molecules are constantly moving around the body. And this is yet another reason why it may never be possible ... because nothing can be done instantly (speed of light constraint again, etc). I've thought deeply about this stuff over the last 5 plus decades having been a science fiction aficionado all my life.
No. of Recommendations: 1
even if you can transmit at the speed of light (in theory the fastest possible), it will take a LOT of time to "transmit" all that digitally ..... nothing can be done instantly
This doesn´t take into account quantum entanglement. Not entanglement in space nor the even more mind-boggling entanglement in time ("Temporal Entanglement") which opens the "In principle possible" doors for all kinds of - for our poor brains - "weird" stuff.
