No. of Recommendations: 6
Opposing views? Not something Baybrooke or Blackswanny want to read
It's not true that board participants do not want opposing views. It's good for investors to not only not block opposing views, but actively seek them out and evaluate against their investment thesis.
As a practical matter, it's not possible to block opposing views. Millions of market participants in the form of Mr. Market offer a view every day and for the past almost 2 years the view has been nothing but opposing. Unless you completely block out prices, which is not possible, there is no escaping the constant barrage of opposing views that have been coming our way this year and last year.
In the spirit of not shunning bearish views, which have clearly won over the last 2 years, I will highlight that BN is down an astounding 46.79% from it's all time high (ATH).
BN hit a spin-off adjusted Nominal ATH of 50.50 on 2/10/22.
Adjusted for inflation, that's a Real ATH of (307.789/283.716) * 50.50 = 54.78.
That makes today's (10/27/23) BN closing price of 29.15 down 46.79% from its Real ATH. Conversely, the real ATH is 88% above current price.
All this carnage and the recession, assuming one is going to occur in this rate hike cycle, hasn't even started yet! On the contrary, Q3 GDP grew by 4.9%!
What if there is a severe recession in 24? How low will BN go? Maybe the Covid bottom of 17.44 on 3/23/20 offers a clue. Adjusting for inflation that is (307.789/257.953)*17.44 = 20.81. So worst case scenario is 28% below current price of 29.15 with SP500 probably around 3000.
For good measure, the pre covid high was 36.87 on 2/21/20 which adjusted for inflation is 43.81 in today's dollars. That's 50% above current price.
In summary, unless something catastrophic happens and BN goes bust, BN will eventually surpass its ATH, which means almost doubling from today's price. However, on the way to this pleasant future result, it may plunge another 28% from current levels!
