No. of Recommendations: 11
QQQE is currently trading on a 27PE and QQQ 40PE. One to keep an eye on.
A couple of comments...
QQQ can't really be valued or predicted by mere humans, as it is primarily a wager on a tiny number of huge firms, though not in proportion to their market caps. It is only a basis for speculation, nothing sensible. (if you knew those firms well enough to value them, you have no need of a fund). So it's not really fruitful to try to compare the two.
The typical value level I mentioned for QQQE is based on a cyclical adjustment of trend earnings, not current P/E. It's also based on the long run average multiple of the trend earnings level, which is reasonably high...but this group as a whole has had remarkable real earnings growth over time, and at a remarkably steady rate. There are decent reasons to doubt that that will last and can be extrapolated (a free lunch tends not to last) but (a) so far so good over the last 30 years, and (b) even if it ends, but it's probably no worse than a set of 100 dartboard picks which is itself almost certain to beat a broad cap weight index.
So be of good cheer : )
Biggest risk?
US corporate net margins are very high compared to history. For some rather not obvious but incontrovertible macroeconomic reasons this is the flip side of huge government deficits. If the folks in charge manage to reduce the deficit, it will not actually be good for US corporate profits, except in the very long term sense of avoiding catastrophe.
Jim
