Avoid making exclusive or discriminatory comments, instead try to create board posts that are open and welcoming to all.
- Manlobbi
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
No. of Recommendations: 0
WEB's abrupt sale of TSMC counterintuitive.
Morris Chang, the founder of Taiwan Semi - 'manufacturing chips in the US is 50% more expensive than in Taiwan.' WEB surely would've known this b4 taking a position.
GLTA,
paul (still head scratching n KC)
No. of Recommendations: 0
absoluely he must have known it. He "may" have thought the Chips Act wouldnt pass....thats the only correlative factor I can think of. The china tensions post date, and the water issues predate, WEB's TSM purchase, but why he sold as much as he did still leaves me scratching my head too. with his Apple purchase he MUST have known anything relevent, as Apple has been in bed with TSM manufacturing for years... unless their LT strategy is to move away...... its a headscrather ..
No. of Recommendations: 0
My guess is it's a T&T purchase and he's vetoed it.
No. of Recommendations: 2
Buffett has made it very clear that he doesn't ok or veto their trades. Either Buffett or t and t changed their opinion.
No. of Recommendations: 1
I find Morris a little prone to hyperbole and overly defensive about TSMC. Supposedly he was trying to push around Pelosi on visit there as well. There are certain cultural advantages to producing chips in Taiwan- you can get away with pushing workers more than you can in the US- but I highly doubt that leads to a 50% better cost basis. Anyway, it should also be noted TSMC will get money via the CHIPS Act. There is a great book called Chip War by Chris Miller that explains the complexities of the chip industry in a very laymen way and goes into great detail about the strategic importance of the industry as to how it relates to national security. If you're looking for a great read I highly recommend it.......
https://www.amazon.com/Chip-War-Worlds-Critical-Te...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Morris sees TSM as his personal baby, and no its not 50% more in USA. In fact you would be surprised...the chips act money is icing on the cake.
No. of Recommendations: 11
Buffett has made it very clear that he doesn't ok or veto their trades. Either Buffett or t and t changed their opinion.
Be sure to include "changed their opinion of the valuation level" in your definition.
The price went up. It's pretty likely they made a quick billion. Nothing wrong with that.
Sure, a long term compounder is best, but a good solid IRR isn't so bad either.
Maybe it was about a change in perceptions about the future trajectory, but maybe it wasn't ALL about that.
A billion here, a billion there...
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi, for ten years, since T and T came on board, Ive been saying that brk should immediately disclose with every 13 f and 13G filing , which trades are Buffetts. Refusal to do so opens the door for t and t to trade into the hype, that Buffett is a buyer of xyz Corp, when it really isn't a Buffett trade. The deliberate lack of transparency should be an embarrassment for all long time brk partners.
No. of Recommendations: 5
Be sure to include "changed their opinion of the valuation level" in your definition.
The price went up. It's pretty likely they made a quick billion. Nothing wrong with that.
Assuming we are still talking about TSM shares here, I think it is more likely that the 86% of the TSM shares that were sold in Q4 were the shares held at a loss. I suspect the overall average cost the the position was also at a loss at year end if no sales had taken place.
The 60 million TSM shares were purchased during the 3rd quarter of 2022, when prices ranged between $91.94 and $67.74. The end of year closing price was $74.49 / share.
Berkshire would have made a quick billion dollars if they hadn't sold in Q4 but most the pop (from their cost basis) occurred after year-end.
I think the most likely explanation is that Warren Buffett thought about it some more and changed his mind.
No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Nola, I seriously doubt tsm is in buffetts wheelhouse, so it's 50-50 this was not buffetts trade,imo. We shall find out soon enough, if, Buffett decides to disclose whose trade it was?
No. of Recommendations: 1
No. of Recommendations: 6
Thanks for posting the politico article bigshan, it was an interesting read. I like Chang, he reminds me a bit of Charlie in his bluntness.
I don't have high hopes for advanced semiconductor fabrication in the United States. It is true that the cost structure will be much higher, but from a TSM perspective it is important to note that Apple is the major customer who wanted this (the Arizona project) and Apple has committed to paying a higher price for these US-made chips from TSM. Like so many activities that are borderline or completely un-economic, there are more than one fingers on the scale here between Apple committing to pay a large premium in the name of diversification and PR, the US grants, tax subsidies, etc...
Obviously TSM is wary of this project and will make sure their company is protected.
(sources for TSM saying Apple has committed to paying higher prices for the Arizona chips are TSM conference call transcripts)
No. of Recommendations: 0
< TSM perspective it is important to note that Apple is the major customer who wanted this (the Arizona project) and Apple has committed to paying a higher price for these US-made chips from TSM. >
Interesting idea. Will Apple shareholders be happy if earrings are reduced due to such commitment?
No. of Recommendations: 3
<Charlie Munger raised this point at the recent Daily Journal Corporation annual meeting on February 15. When asked about the semiconductor industry, he replied:
The semiconductor industry is a very peculiar industry. In [the] semiconductor industry, you have to take all the money you've made, and with each new generation of chips, you throw in all the money you previously made. So it's compulsory investment of everything you want to stay in the game. Naturally, I hate a business like that. ... [N]ow if you're now ahead of it, like Taiwan Semiconductor is, that may be a good buy at these prices. It's not at all clear to me that they're not going to succeed mightily. ... But it's a difficult business and requir[es] everybody to keep increasing the bets on and on with all the money.
>
https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/02/19/why-did-...
