Hard to say. Depends on if polling has gotten any better since 2016/2020 when it underestimated his support by a fair amount in both elections.

I agree that it's hard to say. In 2016, the national polls were pretty accurate (Clinton +3.2 compared to actual +2.1), but there were several very important state polls that were off by enough to change the outcome. Pollsters then made a number of adjustments to try to adapt to that, and ended up having worse results nationally and in many of the same states. They've now made even more changes, and they were pretty accurate in 2022 - but that was a midterm.

So...we don't know if what they're doing will result in (again) an underestimation of Trump, or whether the changes they've made to avoid underestimating Trump were sufficient - or even gone too far the other way.

And it's always worth remembering that polls can't tell us the future - even accurate ones just measure how things are at the time they take the poll. This is an election that might be close enough that it comes down to whether it rains in Philly on election day.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/17/us/...

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