No. of Recommendations: 20
You know, it's said the last stage of a long bear market is when there finally is Capitulation. I am wondering whether that's what we are seeing currently.
Not here of course, not for Berkshire who is far from a "bear market". No, for a specific group of tech stocks, the ones most here are familiar with under the label "Saas" ("Software as a Service"), the ones "Saul's" board is all about and which last year were sinking like stones thrown in a lake --- and are still far beneath the surface for everybody who bought last year or end of the year before, during the height of the hype.
Why it smells like capitulation? Because on "Saul's" board something unimaginable did happen two days ago: Saul himself posted "I am feeling really discouraged", explaining he "doesn't understand what's going on in the market at this point." and that he is "seriously feeling discouraged."
As most here know on his board Saul allows only posts about "the discussion and analyzing of individual high-growth companies" (Quote from "Rules of the Board"). Absolutely forbidden are expressively posts about "market timing", about "technical analysis", about "what the market is going to do next week" etc. etc. etc.
All such posts are not only "OT" for said board, but utterly taboo and forbidden --- but apparently not for the one who makes the rules.
I always thought "Leading and guiding by example" requires that you are your own model poster, that you demand more from yourself than from your followers, that you adhere super-strict to the rules you set and of which you demand others to adhere to.
Will Saul now excommunicate himself?
Naturally that post did open a gate, caused a flood of equally taboo OT posts about the "craziness" of the market who does not value their stocks as they deserve. Now, two days later, that long thread, initiated by Saul, is still is not deleted, Saul not excommunicated by Saul (Do Gods commit suicide when their world comes crashing down?), he did not even apologize.
As I am regularly watching that board with curiousity, seeing it as an interesting psychological and sociological experiment, I have seen similar before. Since a few months Saul from time to time has posts like this, posts he said should encourage others to stay course and not to give up, posts he would immediatedly ban (+ the poster!!!) in his well-known way if written by anybody else.
What's psychologically most fascinating for me is that this guy is a Psychiatrist, somebody who learned to observe and analyze others --- but himself? Reminds me on Bashar al-Assad, who is a doctor, somebody who once did bind himself by the hippocratic oath, either in it's original form or one of the modern variations to help sick people, to respect and to save human beings --- not to kill them.
Epilogue: Yes, this post of mine is extremely OT. But on the old Berkshire board there were quite some posters interested in Saul's board and in his stocks. Then it was part of the "board culture" to not only post about Berkshire but also about anything stocks and even generally investment related --- oh, and even about "Dave just ordered a Cybertruck".
We then were as I liked to call it kind of an "Old Ladies Afternoon Tea Club" --- with Jim making fun of that with "Whom do you call a bloody tea drinker!".
Yeah, those were the times. We had information and lots of ON Topic posts and discussions. But we also had fun, we had heated arguments (Hi Divi), we had it all. That's gone, together with many posters too.
The board is dying, is getting more and more uninteresting. It's just not possible to regularly post about Berkshire. For that the company is just too boring - luckily. You buy it, you hold it forever or until one day something substantially changes and your thesis for holding it gets cracks. Thanks to Jim and a few others you may discuss strategies how to improve performance by using leverage. But that's it.
Therefore I don't think it works what someone here told me privately, that he hopes for more posts "... that are real content, not just links to article and blogs and interviews". An understandable complaint, as there are more and more posts simply containing links to such ("Link to what super-important guy XYZ wrote: www...."), saving oneself to really work on a post.
That guy did not only complain. He himself does his best to provide real content. But I understand the other side as I myself as many others can't provide "real content" which others find interesting, very especially not about Berkshire, this boring company. I tried, with posts about my thoughts about option strategies for Berkshire, hoping that might initiate longer threads and discussions. I failed.
I think there is only a limited amount of "real content" to create with respect to Berkshire.
And that therefore the lifeblood of this board were content providers who deviated from the straight Berkshire line, highly respected people like Elias who with very thoughtful and elaborated posts shared their investment philosophy, told us what they look for, how they value a company, how they see the market and it's participants etc.
Many of those for me "real content" providers that were highly appreciated on the old board are silent or even gone (Elias, I miss you --- and many others).
The other lifeblood I think was that "Old Ladies Afternoon Tea Time", OT posts among people who knew each other online since many years, finding they coincidentally were both close to move to Southern France (Hi, dwerme) or to Portugal (Hi, Rubic). Gone. No more afternoon tea.
With even the notorious "Deviants" gone who were not appreciated but at least got our blood flowing (Hi, Divi. Goodbye, King) there is not probably not much more to say. Enjoy your Cybertruck, Dave.
