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*                         8/5      8/12     8/19     8/26/24
S&P 500 Index             5346.56  5344.16  5554.25  5634.61
Trailing 12 month PE      27.03    26.13    27.38    27.75
Trail Earnings yield      3.70%    3.83%    3.65%    3.60%
Forward 12 month PE       22.55    22.60    23.42    23.78
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.43%    4.42%    4.27%    4.21%
90 day tbill yield        5.29     5.33     5.33     5.25
10 year tbond yield       3.80%    3.94%    3.89%    3.81%
Arezi Ratio               1.43     1.39     1.46     1.46
Fed Ratio                 0.86     0.89     0.91     0.91

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 47%
stocks, 53% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 17%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 66%.

Elan

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