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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: FlyingCircus ✧  😊 😞
Number: of 6243 
Subject: Re: A one-year backtest!
Date: 08/20/25 7:59 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 4
Nagel concluded that because the model was dissecting just 12 months of data, it was simply copying signals that had worked more recently. In other words, it was following a momentum strategy — a well-established trading approach.

... and isn't that what we would expect? A one year backtest trained on 10,000 parameters (most of which are irrelevant or coincident) is as predictive as a one year backtest trained on 10? I mean... that's not even momentum trading.

imagine the cocktail conversation - "I beat the S&P this year by 2% by paying x$$$ for a service that trades based on 10,000 parameters."...

I want the model Bradley Cooper's character used in Limitless.
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This community has written 6,227 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
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OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
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