FWIW, he said that we've been in a bull market since October.

Sure.
That's pretty clear, if you take into account either
(a) hindsight, or
(b) my major market bottom detector buy signal Sep 30 : )

So, if he said we're in a bull market since October, that's more impressive if he said it in October than if he said it in February.

The "99 day" bull market signal is very conservative, and signals pretty rarely.
All of its bullish signals are late...but they're conservative.
By the time this thing signals, it's pretty certain that the market is behaving in a bullish way, sufficiently so that (statistically) it's likely to go on for a while.

A bull market is more or less axiomatically a string of fresh [recent] market highs not too far apart.
If you've been seeing that effect lately then it's by definition a bull market, at least for the moment.
If you aren't, it might not be.
The less obvious extension of that:
The longer it has been since a fresh market high, the dodgier the average forward market returns get.
Check out the table in this old post
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.