No. of Recommendations: 6
In 2003 Strong Funds got into serious trouble. I had an IRA there and a taxable account at Strong because they allowed me to sell cash secured puts in my IRA, and I was able to direct hot small cap IPOs to Strong for my accounts. An over-the-counter market marker I was very close to called in early 2003 to tell me my check for 50K to his firm, bounced. It wasn't my fault, I suspected Strong may have been comingling funds or worse. I moved the accounts to Vanguard, Strong went under and was acquired in 2004.
In 2007 I had accounts at Bear Sterns. The options markets weren't very liquid back then, Bear allowed me to sell options on gaming stocks that didn't have listed options yet. I moved the accounts from Bear in 2007, friends in the business in New York warned me trouble was brewing. Bear crashed in 2008, due to excessive risk taking, mortgage-backed securities, no doubt other fraud.
In 2026 two obvious issues can cause another panic. There are many phony, marks, in the commercial real estate space. Many of these loans will be coming due. HOW can the Blackstone building and the Blackrock building not be secure in NY? They are going to have to spend a ton to secure all these commercial buildings. Will we be going back to a three day in the office routine? That would have very serious implications for the space and major cities.
The second risk is the crypto space. I don't follow it that closely, but will we find out that the issued and outstanding of some of these coins is 2-3-4 xs what the market thinks? Do you trust how these crypto trades clear? How are they held? Brokerage firms that cater to that business might very well be at risk.
Those are the two potential catalysts that I see.
