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Investment Strategies / Index Investing
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Author: tedthedog 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 209 
Subject: Re: Small caps vs large caps
Date: 10/24/2024 12:13 PM
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@Aussi, thanks much!

Hmmm... interesting graph. What I see is:

The little blue squiggles are analyst's estimates of future TTM earnings, but starting 24 month out.
These blue estimates apparently start in February of each year, then over the subsequent two years are revised until you hit the 24 month out target date.

If above is correct (may not be), then the convergence of the blue squiggles to the red line indicates that the estimates get more accurate as you forecast closer and closer to the earnings date.

That's fine, but I'd have simply plotted what you're predicting at a fixed time out against what occurred at that time, and quantified the agreement with correlation or some appropriate metric.

FWIW, my impression so far is that forward earnings estimates are typically too high.

Doesn't matter much for more extreme values of P/Eforward.

But those pretty Yardeni P/Eforward curves do have error bars, that aren't shown.


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