No. of Recommendations: 7
This update is to Kenneth Lee’s Benchmark Investing picks based on the latest Monday’s data release. The S&P500 continues to climb higher and at this time the market is up nearly 13% year-to-date. With this update there are just 5 companies in the DJIA 30 that are below their downside price targets. They are NVDA -3%, NKE -31%, DIS -16%, CRM -69%, and AMZN -28%. However, among this select group, none would qualify as a viable BI pick.
If you are interested in following along with this methodology against a broader range of stocks outside of the Dow30, these picks are posted here under this post on a regular basis as trades occur (BUY, SELL, and ADD).
Market Valuation (Dow 30): Market Valuation (Dow 30):
The DOW30 market has gone from a parity reading last quarter to -17% overvalued according to the BI method of valuation.
Downside: -36%
Upside: +2%
Long Buy Rules: I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which are the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when they are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)
5. ROE and BV current figures must be updated by VL
Sell Rules: I am using the following TTD rules to Sell Long positions:
Criteria (1 OR 2 OR 5, AND 3 AND 4):
1. Price Appreciation < Market Average Appreciation
2. Current Price > BI HiPrice
3. Hold time > 365 days per cycle
4. ROE & BV must be current
5. No longer listed as a market average component
Summary of Results: VL Current ROE/BV Down Up %<10Y %<10Y EPS Div 3-5Y 3-5Y VL3-5Y VL18mo ROE
Ticker Date Price Updated Price Price Down Down4Qs Delta Yield VL L$ VL H$ % Chg % Chg <2STD Name
CAT 7-Aug-26 822 TRUE 318 534 159% 177% 14% 0.8 685 925 0% 18% FALSE Caterpillar Inc.
MCD 14-Aug-26 237 FALSE 9% 3.3 410 505 91% 22% TRUE McDonald's Corp.
CVX 21-Aug-26 204 TRUE 184 258 11% 72% 27% 3.5 260 315 39% 11% FALSE Chevron Corp.
JPM 21-Aug-26 343 TRUE 208 317 65% 71% 16% 2.0 335 410 10% 16% FALSE JPMorgan Chase
BA 28-Aug-26 198 FALSE 6160% 111% - 295 445 85% 25% TRUE Boeing
TRV 28-Aug-26 363 TRUE 350 463 4% 23% -16% 1.4 380 465 17% 12% TRUE Travelers Cos.
UNH 28-Aug-26 377 TRUE 307 470 23% 25% 13% 2.5 410 610 37% -12% FALSE UnitedHealth Group
AMGN 28-Aug-26 415 FALSE 3% 2.5 365 495 5% 20% TRUE Amgen
VZ 4-Sep-26 47.08 TRUE 40 52 19% 33% 5% 6.0 65 80 55% -7% FALSE Verizon Communic.
CSCO 4-Sep-26 107 FALSE 51 73 109% 128% 14% 1.6 110 135 15% -9% FALSE Cisco Systems
HD 11-Sep-26 293 FALSE 4% 3.1 405 495 51% 26% TRUE Home Depot
SHW 11-Sep-26 329 TRUE 256 394 28% 40% 9% 1.0 425 575 53% 15% FALSE Sherwin-Williams
PG 11-Sep-26 146 FALSE 140 182 5% 6% 2% 3.0 190 230 42% 7% FALSE Procter & Gamble
NVDA 18-Sep-26 225 TRUE 231 650 -3% 3% 73% 0.4 355 535 97% 29% FALSE NVIDIA Corp.
AAPL 18-Sep-26 341 FALSE 149% 6% 0.3 350 470 21% 19% TRUE Apple Inc.
JNJ 25-Sep-26 271 TRUE 175 224 55% 58% 15% 2.0 230 280 -5% 7% FALSE Johnson & Johnson
MRK 25-Sep-26 149 TRUE 34 47 338% 137% 171% 2.3 140 170 4% -12% FALSE Merck & Co.
HON 2-Oct-26 213 TRUE 0 0 999% -42% -37% 1.3 205 250 7% 15% TRUE Honeywell Int'l
MMM 2-Oct-26 170 FALSE 51% 9% 1.8 155 235 14% 18% TRUE 3M Company
GS 2-Oct-26 935 TRUE 554 920 69% 92% 13% 2.1 1020 1380 28% 17% FALSE Goldman Sachs
KO 10-Jul-26 87.81 TRUE 66 83 34% 38% 3% 2.5 80 100 2% 6% FALSE Coca-Cola
WMT 17-Jul-26 108 TRUE 57 82 88% 101% 10% 0.9 140 175 42% 28% FALSE Walmart Inc.
NKE 17-Jul-26 35.75 FALSE 52 83 -31% -18% -19% 4.6 60 85 101% -9% TRUE NIKE Inc. 'B'
DIS 24-Jul-26 106 TRUE 126 190 -16% -18% 24% 1.5 155 230 86% 26% FALSE Disney (Walt)
AXP 31-Jul-26 309 TRUE 225 356 38% 44% 12% 1.3 320 480 32% 26% FALSE Amer. Express
V 31-Jul-26 367 TRUE 350 472 5% 9% 12% 0.8 465 570 43% 0% FALSE Visa Inc.
IBM 31-Jul-26 226 TRUE 132 192 71% 77% 4% 2.9 280 420 50% 24% FALSE Int'l Business Mach.
MSFT 31-Jul-26 516 FALSE 412 638 25% 39% 12% 0.8 625 765 38% 9% FALSE Microsoft Corp.
CRM 31-Jul-26 234 TRUE 745 1300 -69% -64% -14% 0.7 250 370 30% 0% TRUE Salesforce Inc.
AMZN 31-Jul-26 250 TRUE 345 580 -28% -26% -32% - 420 565 97% 22% FALSE Amazon.comm
Dow30 51,829 32,929 52,601 2.0 58,918 78,465 Dow Jones Industrial Average
Appreciation Potential -36% 2% 14% 52% 40% 12%
AllTooFoolish's CAPS Portfolio: If you are interested in seeing this method applied to a broader universe of stocks, follow my actively managed Benchmark Investing portfolio using an update to this post. I have been using this methodology for many years with great success. In this post you will find my current dynamic managed portfolio and can see my most recent activities as they occur.
Notable activity in my Managed BI portfolio over the past several months:
• ADD: KDP on Jul 10,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -33%.
• ADD: OMC on Jul 24,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -22%.
• ADD: TTD on Jul 24,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -82%.
• SELL: ALB on Jul 24, 2026, Overpriced. BI Downside price +6%.
• BUY: INTU on Jul 31, 2026, downside price target -34%.
• ADD: NOW on Jul 31,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -39%.
• BUY: TYL on Jul 31, 2026, downside price target -39%.
• ADD: CSGP on Jul 31,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -59%.
• BUY: BSX on Aug 7, 2026, downside price target -37%.
• BUY: ISRG on Aug 7, 2026, downside price target -21%.
• ADD: ALGN on Aug 7,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -42%.
• SELL: TECH on Aug 7, 2026, limited upside due to buyout offer from MRK. They really got a bargain. It is easily worth $100. Personally, I am holding a bit longer to get a few extra nickels.
• ADD: DCXM on Aug 7,2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -50%.
• ADD: DXCM on May 8, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -63%.
• ADD: TMUS on Sep 4, 2026, continues to meet all buy requirements. BI Downside target -24%.
I will continue to track and update two different Portfolios in 2026. Both these portfolios will be held for the entire year.
2026 BI Managed PortfolioThe first portfolio (Managed) will be a continuation of last year picks that have not yet hit a Sell signal plus any new picks that qualify using the latest results. These are noted as “ADD” or “BUY” during each quarterly update. Year-to-date it is underperforming the market.
ALGN, TECH (sold), CAH, CMG, EOG, TMUS, LKQ, CHTR, BALL, NVDA, MOS, MRK, PFE, PAYC, AKAM, KDP, TAP, SLB (sold), ALB (sold), L, PYPL, CRM, EPAM (sold), AMZN, TTD (bought), DXCM (bought), HRL (bought), DIS (bought), OMC (bought), GPN (bought), NW (bought), CSGP (bought), ZBH (bought), ERIE (bought), CRL (bought) ), TYL (bought), INTU (bought), BSX(bought), ISRG (bought)
BI Managed Portfolio Total Return Year-to-Date +7.8%
S&P 500 Total Return Year-to-Date +13.6%
The largest winner to date is CRL +46%.
The biggest loser this year is TTD -63%
The second portfolio (Current) will only include picks that qualified based on the Buy rules using the results at the very beginning of the current year and will be held for the entire year without change. Year-to-date it is underperforming the market.
2026 Current PortfolioPCAR, ALGN, COO, CHTR, BALL, MOS, PFE, KDP, TAP TTD, SLB, CRM
BI Current Portfolio Total Return Year-to-Date -9.0%
S&P 500 Total Return Year-to-Date +13.6%
The largest winner to date is SLB +30%
The biggest loser this year is TTD -66%
Disclosures and Useful TermsVL Date is the date of the last summary report update from Valueline as indicated in the post’s subject line. All data sources from the Valueline Dow30 reports are made publicly available on their website.
Value Line: Value Line - ResearchCurrent Price is the closing price of the stock as reported by VL, which is usually a few days behind the date
of the time period mentioned in this posting’s subject line.
• ROE/BV Updated is an indication if the stock’s BV and ROE have been updated through the end of the Benchmark evaluation time frame.
• 10Yr Down is the 10 year downside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.
• 10Yr Down4Qs is the 10 year downside price averaged over the previous 4 quarter’s valuation price.
• 10Yr Up is the 10 year upside price. The company must have at least 7 years of non-negative ROE data to qualify.
Both upside and downside are calculated using the method outlined in TTD book. Also, a discussion of calculating the upside and downside can be found here:
The Motley Fool: Message...
• %<10Y Downside is the current price divided by the 10 Yr downside expressed as a percentage.
• EPS Future Delta is the projected growth in EPS for the next 4 quarters versus the last four reported quarters.
• I use the latest EPS data from the VL spreadsheet which are updated as soon as new earnings are reported.
• Div Yield is the current % dividend payout ratio per share.
• 3-5 Y Low/Hi Price Est. is the downside/upside price estimate which is calculated using the projections of Book Value and ROE as discussed in TTD.
• Min VL Price Appreciation is the expected change in price from current price to low end VL projected 3-5 year appreciation price.
• VL Price 18 Price Appreciate is the VL projected % change in price from the current price within the next 18 months.
• ROE >2STD is part of a margin of safety consideration, which is briefly discussed in TTD on pg 70-71.
I compare the current year's ROE versus the last 10 years of ROE data. If the current ROE is greater than average (10 Yr ROE) + (2 * stdev(10 Yr ROE)), then this column is TRUE, else it is FALSE. This tells me that the stock's ROE is much higher than its historic average and should therefore be avoided.
-AllTooFoolish
