No. of Recommendations: 20
Yes the price is going up or holding up. As long as it does people will rationalize.
Sounds reasonable.
FWIW, my line of reasoning remains unchanged. Stop at the step whose assumption you're uncomfortable with.
(1)
Say what they will, almost everyone holding crypto assets hold them for one reason: they think the price will go up.
If they're honest.
(2)
As it is a capital good rather than an earning asset, the price is determined solely by supply and demand.
(3)
For any capital good (rather than earning asset), the price will go up only if there is an increasing population of buyers.
(technically just an increasing aggregate number of coins people want to hold, but it amounts to the same thing).
(4)
The number of such people is infinite.
(5)
The price will therefore stop rising when the number of new players tops out, as there will be no increased demand.
(6)
With no increase in demand, price history will no longer have an uptrend, per #3.
(7)
With no visible up-trend, at some point people will lose their prime motivation for holding: anticipating future price rises.
Some will give up quickly, others will hold on for a long time, but with enough years of history of no up-trend, demand will peak and start falling.
(8)
If aggregate demand starts falling, prices will fall somewhat.
This will give a positive feedback loop to #6-7.
It could turn into a fire sale, or just a long heat death.
(9)
Eventually only the die-hards will hold it, and prices will likely bounce around wildly, with no net change, within some low range, indefinitely.
There is still trading in Beanie Babies. Just not a lot. The prices aren't zero, they just aren't high and there isn't an uptrend to ride.
The number of people interested isn't zero, it just isn't big enough to warrant anyone's attention.
When was the last time you saw a headline about rampant speculation on silver prices or bubblegum cards?
Jim
