No. of Recommendations: 4
Not sure if there will be a SA paywall. Excerpt:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4733045-berkshire...Conclusion:
“The Q3 Berkshire Hathaway interim report changed many things in my thinking. There's no more sell some, keep some. I have argued that my readers should sell their losers and let their winners ride. This is often but not always the way to go. Every November I sell every stock in my portfolio that is in the red but for most years I sold only one stock, maybe two. I'm beginning to sense that for the next year and perhaps the end of this year I should go ahead and sell winners with huge embedded capital gains and just pay the taxes knowing that higher taxes are likely in the immediate and extended future. Isn't this what Buffett is doing, knowing that his window of opportunity may be somewhat short?
That leaves the problem of Berkshire itself, the largest position in my portfolio. For the first time I am facing the fact that it is too large a position and I need to at least trim it. After all, every investor should remember that anything can happen. The absence of buybacks in Q3 was the clincher which made me accept what Buffett was clearly doing. He didn't want to buy in Berkshire stock at its current price. That says it all. He wouldn't sell any of course, but the fact that he didn't buy is the moral equivalent of selling. That leaves me with a problem. Over thirteen years of writing about Berkshire I have never ended by saying anyone should think of it in any way except as a Strong Buy, or when it is clearly a bit expensive, a Buy. I can't really do that right now because Buffett has as much as told us not to, that when you put together Berkshire's participation in ordinary market risk and its current price, it can't be a Buy or Strong Buy. The best solution is to ask my readers to look carefully at the implications of what Buffett has been doing and not doing and come to your own conclusion. That amounts to a Hold, not too cowardly, I hope, but the best way of expressing a measured response in the face of indeterminacy.
Good luck to all readers in the face of what may be coming down the pike.”
