Clearing is the period when students who didn't get/accept a firm offer get matched up with a uni and course.

wonkhe.com - A busy ucas clearing for

ucas.com - Statistical releases daily clearing analysis

1) Appears to be very high take-up of uni places this year + a flight to quality?

"a particularly busy clearing period."

"Both numerically and proportionally, this represents an exceptional year."

"We can see that high tariff providers recruited an extra 3,650 UK 18 year old since JCQ results day, a record number"

" Meanwhile lower tariff providers recruited just 1,650 (a record low outside of the pandemic)"

"14,470 18 year old UK domiciled applicants have found places via clearing, which is the highest figure since 2023"

2) Raw data above, daily, plus overview

international applicants +3% (so far)

domestic applicants +2% or +3% (so far) depending on whether you focus on the 18+ cohort or all ages

3) It's worth noting clearing is only just underway, school exam grades only just came out last week. Clearing has another month to run.

4) Intention to live at home has increased from 37.8% to 38.3%. But this stat is dominated by the overall increase in accepted places. "Not planning to live at home" is already numerically higher than in 2024 and 2025.

5) If I understand correctly, strong clearing will affect about 1/3 of the financial results for the current tax year for Unite Group. About 2/3 will fall in the following financial year. Between buybacks and this news, and synergy stuff (e.g. Empiric HQ fully closed), I personally estimate the next financial year's earnings should be back at the 47-48p level. It's especially good that students are trying to get into the high-tariff universities where Unite primarily operates.

6) Currently I'm expecting Unite will slightly exceed the high end of management forecast range for adjusted EPS in the current year. e.g. 43p. Expecting very good occupancy and OK LFL.

I think there is an update in mid-October that should clarify Unite's own view on this. This 'good clearing' hopefully will lock in a few of the ongoing asset sales as well. Fingers crossed!

TRS

PS as always - please check all claims for yourself and message on thread if there are any errors in the post.