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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 55803 
Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
Date: 08/22/2025 12:35 PM
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All you've done is point out the ways in which those smaller militaries that managed to get a country with a larger military to withdraw weren't exactly the same as Ukraine's, but you haven't "ack'd" the point that these were all cases in which the larger military withdrew despite not being driven out. And none of the differences you've identified in the smaller militaries are germane to the larger countries' decisions to withdraw.

I'd suggest we move on. Read the thread and look at who throws the mud.

If the mujahedin could force Russia to withdraw, it's certainly possible that the Ukrainian army can, too.

Sure. Over how many years? At what cost? <-- I raised this earlier in the thread and that point was ignored.

You're not the only one who is frustrated.

No one was ignoring your point.

LOL. Happens every. single. time. I get on this board.

They were just pointing out to you that it wasn't relevant to the point of disagreement. So why do you keep repeating it?

It is relevant to the discussion. The thing with the "History is replete with small countries forcing large ones to withdraw" requires historical nuance and background. You can't merely throw out "well, the Americans forced the British to withdraw" without going through the context and the historical specifics.

Anyway.

The Ukraine situation - just like all those others - is different. It's worth exploring the difference.

My view is based on the following:
1. Russia sucks.
2. Russia, while sucking, is a sideshow in geopolitical politics.
3. China sucks.
4. China is the real geopolitical threat.
5. China is more than happy to have the West expend time, energy and dollars on a regional war ESPECIALLY if NATO war stocks are depleted to the point where military readiness is affected.

Which brings us to the current war in the Ukraine.

I've not disclosed this, but I have a personal connection via a mentee who is Ukrainian and has family there. She had to get her dad out of Kharkiv and still has family being bombed and shelled there. It's not a fun time.

No one disagrees that Russia needs to go and that Russia needs to pay a price. It's in everyone's best interest - especially the people who happen to live there - that Russia is evicted ASAP.

Now you understand, hopefully, the refrain of "dudes, guns and money". There is an urgency to removing the Russians from Ukranian territory.

Now apply 1-5 to all of the above.

A long, drawn out conflict in the Ukraine is something that China is cheering on for a number of reasons:
1. Every missile the west supplies and every tank the Russians destroy is one less munition/system the Chinese don't have to worry about.
2. The Russians capture equipment, too, and they learn things and pass on the intelligence.
3. The Russians are pounding the sh1t out of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian farmland is full of mines. Their economy is almost nonexistent.

So how do we
(a) Make the Russians bleed enough to withdraw from the territory they've occupied?
(b) Do it quickly enough so that we don't exhaust all our supplies in case we need them elsewhere?
(c) Do it quickly enough so that we minimize civilian casualties and infrastructure damage?

(a)-(c) are the problems to be solved. There is a time element to all this that can't be waved away.
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