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as you know I have been slightly pivoting out of a small position in aggressive stocks , small part of my portfolio. Just looked at PFE and took a position. Div +/- 5.5 % , seems safe enough for a long term hold. anyone else looking at this as interest rates expected to go down... I already bought XOM at 98, Dow at 52 , and have held COP and PSX for some years.
anyone looked at PFE lately ?

anyone looked at PFE lately ?

I posted some thoughts here:

https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=985245568

tecmo
...

I would but massive Covid Vaccine risk with class action lawsuits coming

See Ed Dowd

I noticed Pfizer's attractive dividend and apparently reasonable share price, and briefly considered buying some last week.
After a quick review of materials available online, I decided, rightly or wrongly, to pass. Chief among my reasons was Pfizer's mid-December $43 billion purchase of Seagen. I am always somewhat skittish about large mergers and, with this one just beginning to be implemented, my uncertainty increased. See also "Pfizer Buys Seagen - Why This Deal May Not Please Shareholders" by Edmund Ingham, SeekingAlpha.com (03/13/2023).
Pfizer currently may be the best buy since sliced bread; just not for me.

Good luck!

Philmordun

Hi hbird, watch this video and see what you think of vaccines and pfe. https://x.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1750561615068680...

"Hi hbird, watch this video and see what you think of vaccines and pfe. https://x.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1750561615068680.."

Oh geez....

LOL

Come on man, be better.

Umm, aren’t you the expert who responded with this yesterday”” If you stopped trying to destroy the US with your ignorance, you might educate yourself and realize that Biden has had a speaking disorder his whole life.“”. Yep, Biden loyalists are truly great Americans and Joe hasn’t lost a step or two. Back to morning Joe bud, get all the facts. ☮️

A side comment on the general topic of dividends...

Personally I find it very difficult to pick individual stocks which pay a decent yield. The temptation is to look for high yields, which is always a bit too strongly correlated with seeking companies having trouble.

So to garner a dividend from a portfolio I prefer a shotgun approach.

Random example:
Since most readers here are in the US and non-US dividends are a nuisance for them, find all the US-domiciled stocks in the Value Line 1700 database.

Of those, find all the stocks ones with dividend yields in the rage 1-8%. Too low and it doesn't really help with the yield of the portfolio; too high and the companies are in too much trouble. The numbers aren't that critical. You could use 0.5% to 10%, but 1-8 seems fine. That leaves you with an average of around 725 stocks.

From among those dividend payers, simply buy equal dollar amounts of the N stocks with the highest reported return on shareholders' equity, with N = whatever number of stocks you want to own. Hold those stocks for a quarter (or six months or a year or whatever) and repeat. I tested N=40 stocks.

This would actually have beat the S&P 500 modestly over time, but it's basically a tie so it isn't a way to get rich. It does however generate a yield higher than the S&P with pretty low risk. No company is more than 2.5% of your money, so you don't have to look too closely at them. At the moment that would give an average dividend yield of about 2.89%. Their average earnings yield is about 7.1%, equating to a P/E of 14.1 and a dividend payout ratio of 41%.

Still not enough yield? From among those 40 by ROE, take only the 30 highest yielders, which historically hurts the long run total return by a fraction of a percent but is still basically market tracking or trivially beating. Currently that would give an average yield of 3.40%, each stock being a high ROE business at 3.33% of your dividend portfolio. The average earnings yield equates to a P/E of 14.2.

Jim

Hi Harv, I'll watch , but if its bad news it will be too late, I'm on my 6th PFE/BIOGEN vaccine shot.... Thanks !

Hbird, at our age I suspect that's fine. I'll send you the PFE VL. Take care.

Thanks Harv ! btw , I am going to retire in S of France. after that I wont be able to buy and sell, so my BRKB holdings should let me eat and drink red wine quite well there :-) USA brokers will only let is sell down....

What if the dividend is 8% and the stock price has the potential to more than double?
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (IDCBY) is such stock, China's largest bank
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IDCBY?p=IDCBY

I bought it about 6 month ago, and break even so far including dividend received.

"" USA brokers will only let is sell down...."" Yikes, I never knew that. If you give up American citizenship can't you move your assets to a broker in France ? Good luck old friend.

Jim, would using % of 52 week high, with this screen of ROE and yield, help with this screen?

What if the dividend is 8% and the stock price has the potential to more than double?

You'd miss out! On that one.

But the "shotgun" approach is a game of statistics.

As you note, sometimes a yield is high simply because the stock is oversold, so the price rebounds. It's not that rare.
But on average across all US stocks with yields that high, that's not the case. Somewhat more often it's because the dividend is going to get cut and the forward total return will be poor.

If every quarter you built an equally weighted portfolio of all the stocks covered by Value Line with an indicated yield over 8%, you would not do well.
Total return including dividends since summer 2007 of -9.5% (total, not annualized)
Versus S&P +334.6%
(and, just for completeness, a portfolio of all those dividend payers paying less than 8%, +312%)

So the conclusion, and the reason for my suggestion:
In the very specific situation that you know nothing else about a company besides its dividend yield, you want to skip those over (say) 8%.
Maybe you prefer a cutoff of maximum 7% of 11% or whatever, but there is definitely a level beyond which you'd better have some other good reason to want to own it.

Jim

Jim, would using % of 52 week high, with this screen of ROE and yield, help with this screen?

Maybe. That's a different sort of philosophy.

The notion was that you're really interested in the dividend on a solid portfolio, not specifically trying to beat the market.
If you include a momentum factor, there will inevitably be a lot more turnover. I just figured the intended audience for the post would not be into that.

If you want a bitter total return, in my view a "better" screen (in terms of hopes of beating the market a bit) would be the second one described here:
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...
It too has a dividend for every stock, presumably a lower average yield, but (I predict) a higher total return.
In the 3.75 years since that post, it has beat the S&P by 7.33%/year out of sample. (25.89%/year vs 18.56%/year)
It's a 40 stock portfolio where every stock is a large cap dividend payer with a high ROE, so it's probably not particularly risky.

I don't expect an advantage that big on average going forward, but it's some validation that the backtest wasn't JUST wishful thinking.

Jim

If you want a bitter total return, in my view a "better" screen (in terms of hopes of beating the market a bit) would be the second one described here:
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jim. how would you run that screen on FT Global Screener
A while back you indicated some screens there?

Jim. how would you run that screen on FT Global Screener
A while back you indicated some screens there?

The global screener is good for finding interesting individual international stock ideas. I particularly like that it has a data field for five year average ROE.

In this case, though, if you want results similar to what the quoted backtest reports, I'd suggest getting the picks in the exact same way that the backtest was done--with a Value Line subscription. If it's worth doing, it's worth paying them their fee. With a different data source it's a different investment approach. Sometimes there are hidden subtleties on how financial databases are constructed.

For example, we had a too-many-post discussion at the Mechanical Investment board merely about which of the two Value Line data fields to use for the ROE step. One is updated only annually from the annual statements, and the other is quarterly. (surprisingly I find the annual one works better, despite being quite out of date--no one can figure out how they calculate the quarterly one)

Jim

Yes. That was me.

What does that have to do with the fact that you use garbage sources of information that take advantage of you?

We really need you to do better. America cannot continue as long as a large portion of its population chooses willful ignorance.

USA brokers will only let is sell down....

Is that a citizenship thing or location thing?

I live in and am citizen of Ireland (EU) and have no problems buying and selling US stocks with Interactive Brokers https://www.interactivebrokers.ie

Might be worth checking them out.

StevnFool

usa brokers dont want to produce thedocumentation needed, so ....also in many jurisdictions abroad you cant hold mutual funds, or ETF's etc, not recognized...so Uncle Sam wants his cut (citizen based taxation) but you cannot really manage your wealth....its completely crazy ! Thats also why BRK is so good.. I have heard that IBKR will allow but its domiciled in Ireland...adds another layer of complexity if thats not where you live....be glad if anyone can tell me different, but I have spoken to my brokerages and tax advisors... and nope....

I had posted on IBKR before I saw your response... AFAIK you have to live in ireland..altho I have citizenship there I am going to France, so it adds complexity and I believe they will not accept...love to be wrong on that ! I am also USA citizen so uncle Sam will tax me to beyond the grave...

"as you know I have been slightly pivoting out of a small position in aggressive stocks , small part of my portfolio. Just looked at PFE and took a position. Div +/- 5.5 % , seems safe enough for a long term hold. anyone else looking at this as interest rates expected to go down... I already bought XOM at 98, Dow at 52 , and have held COP and PSX for some years.
anyone looked at PFE lately ?"

Yes, I started purchasing around $30 and continued adding as it dipped more. I find that patent cliffs with pharma stocks tend to be overrated in that no one can really predict the big revenue stream from drugs. All pharmas have patent cliffs and yet somehow they continue to survive and thrive. The large decline in price with PFE has to due with the mentioned cliffs, the big drop in Covid revenues and a feeling that they grossly overpaid for Seagate. Again, I just don't think the patent cliffs will be as bad analysts think. Regarding the drop in Covid revenues, while the drop is very real, the disease is not going away so I think those revenues should stabilize and be a continuing contributor, albeit not nearly as large as it once was. They are working on a Covid/RSV combo vaccine that has potential particularly with youngsters. The country will eventually grow out of this anti vax ridiculousness and any talk of "law suits" is merely juxtaposing one's political views onto an investment. I can't see any viable way Pfizer could be held legally responsible for helping bail the world out of the Covid crisis. And finally, they did pay a whopping sum for Seagate (wanna say it was $40B) but supposedly there's some potential there with their oncology drugs. I honestly don't know much about it but even if it doesn't pay off in the long run it was mostly paid for with the Covid windfall so while it would be a waste of money it wasn't like they mortgaged the company to do it.

One last thing (since your title was "Div stocks"). Part of my purchase of PFE came from dividends from Philip Morris International in what I call "dividend arbitrage"- taking quarterly payments from one stock and instead of reinvesting you transfer it into another stock with similar yield. It just so happened the PFE matched up with PM at round the time of purchase but I plan to continue doing this so long as the yields keep matching up or are close. Dividend arbitrage is a good way to start taking money out of one stock where you have to big of a portion of your dividends coming from. I still like PM but regulation is never going away and will always be a drain on the industry even if they are all diversifying away from tobacco right now.

"" usa brokers dont want to produce thedocumentation needed, so ."" You could adopt me, I'll look out for you.

I am going to retire in S of France. after that I wont be able to buy and sell, so my BRKB holdings should let me eat and drink red wine quite well there :-) USA brokers will only let is sell down....

If you're retiring in the south of France (where I am sitting at the moment!), presumably you will be a resident of France for tax and other purposes unless you're visiting for shortish periods. (still having to file in the US too--separate discussion). If that's the case, you will be allowed to use any broker which serves French residents, which includes Interactive Brokers, various banks, and wealth management banks. Many of those will be just fine with you buying and selling US stocks and options (though not mutual funds or ETFs). You'll be able to move your stock from your US broker to whatever new France-supporting broker you pick, and do whatever trades you like in it.

The tax situation is bad, of course. France has immense payroll taxes. As they are not fond of capitalists, to say the least, any profit on a stock sale is kind of deemed as income in this sense so you have to pay not only the capital gains rate income tax on the profit, but also the "social charges" (payroll tax) on it as well. I believe they have simplified this recently and made it a single combined flat number and lowered it somewhat, but it still isn't exactly a SMALL flat number...30% I think??

Jim

"Yes. That was me.

What does that have to do with the fact that you use garbage sources of information that take advantage of you?

We really need you to do better. America cannot continue as long as a large portion of its population chooses willful ignorance."

During the pandemic when we all had plenty of time to waste I decided to do a deep dive into how the whole anti vax thing got started and found a great book on the subject- The Doctor Who Fooled the World by Brian Deer. It's quite the riveting read! I turns out we've had waves of anti vax movements for two centuries but the modern movement (and most damaging one) can pretty much be traced to Dr. Andrew Wakefield. Wakefield is British and started his quackery (or grift shall I say?) in the Uk eventually transporting it to the US to prey on the likes of the Jenny McCarthey's of the world.

Fun fact- you want to know the first ever vaccine mandate in the US? That would be George Washington mandating the Continental US army that they either had to get vaccines or wear red coats!

https://www.mountvernon.org/education/primary-sour...

Yes, the current French tax on capital gains and dividends is 30%. You will get a 15% tax credit for foreign dividend withholding tax. I use IBKR without any problem for USA and European shares.

Astore (living in France)

I had posted on IBKR before I saw your response... AFAIK you have to live in ireland..altho I have citizenship there I am going to France, so it adds complexity and I believe they will not accept...love to be wrong on that ! I am also USA citizen so uncle Sam will tax me to beyond the grave...

I believe Jim has already addressed this but I understand Interactive Brokers serve all of the EU from two countries - Ireland and I forget the other - might be Lithuania. So I don't think you should have an issue. You are right about ETF's. This is not a broker issue though. It relates to documentation to meet some EU directive. I don't believe any of the US ETF issuers bothered to meet the requirement. I still have some QQEW from before this came in. I can hold or sell but not buy. Someone did mention that you might be able to acquire them via options - i.e. write (sell) an in the money PUT option on the ETF and let it be assigned on expiration. I have not tried to see if this works.

StevnFool

indeed , and then the "good doctor" moved to Austin TX wgere he found willing stooges to give him a bigger platform.....including Alex Jones with Info wars....agree, everyone must do better...

30% tax..? are you including in that social charges ?

thanks, seems IKBR is a definite possibility for me...

30% tax..? are you including in that social charges ?

I believe that the rules changed a couple of years back, and the 30% includes both the income tax and the "social charges".
Not that bad, certainly compared to the prior situation.

I don't know the exact boundaries of what types of investments that applies to.

Jim

AFAIK at the moment, I will be in France when I get sold up here , under the EU rules,due to Irish citizenship, but due to US citizenship , will have to pay Uncle Sam. I will be retired, so I "should " file zero tax return in France (other than property taxes to pay) . all of my passive income will be US taxed by Uncle Sam. If anything changes in the future and I should pay tax in France, then under the double taxation treaty this is a USA deduction .

I think you're right about the net result, but probably not the process.

I believe you will be deemed to be a US national tax resident in France. France will tax you on your worldwide income, and you have to file there. You will also have to file in the US. The tax treaty means that you won't pay the tax twice...what you pay in one place will be a credit in the other place. But it does in general mean that you will pay the higher of the two countries' tax rates on each subcategory of income (salary, capital gains, dividends, etc), since they are generally non-refundable tax credits. And you have to file two tax returns. The exception is that I believe a certain amount of income for US citizens who are not US resident is exempted from US tax...for that portion, you will pay only the "local" rate, French in this case, rather than the higher of the two rates on that category of income.

As for using a French broker, I suspect (??) that you will find that as a French resident you will by law be required to use one registered to offer services in France. Many/most countries prohibit their residents from using brokerages which are not registered in that jurisdiction. Fortunately there are good choices now, like IB.

And again, as an EU resident, you will likely be prohibited from investing in things which are not allowed for EU residents, most notably US mutual funds and ETFs. I don't know if you would be allowed to continue holding ones you owned the day of your deemed arrival in Europe. EU mutual funds (UCITS) are horrible, as a rule. Very fragmented market, so fees remain high.

I know a lot of people in this general situation, and it's not so bad, other than the hassle of filing the 1040. The only hard thing is getting a regular bank account to pay your bills. Most banks absolutely will not touch US citizens, regardless of whether or not they are legal local residents, even if their spouse is an EU citizen.

Jim

PS, I strongly recommend you ask Manlobbi to pull your post with your email address in it.
You don't want that out there on the web.
Just invite people to reply using the "Email hummingbird" option at the bottom of the form.

PFE beat today.....lets see how I do with it long term...didnt quite catch the low as div went over 6% , but close enough for guv'mint work as they say...

<< Most banks absolutely will not touch US citizens, regardless of whether or not they are legal local residents, even if their spouse is an EU citizen.>>

It's doable, but I had to hire a local attorney to open my EU bank account. :-(

-Rubic

many thanks !
I do have french bank and will now be looking closely at IB. Yes, I know , restrictions on mutual funds, etf's etc. straight stocks are safest, no managed accounts allowed. thus my BRKB build up over the years.
Your comment on subcategories of income is very interesting, will look into that further.
Yes, tax treaty with France is not so bad, just a lot of paper hassle 2 x a year...first france then by june 15 Uncle Sam. I have had a couple of recommendations for a tax filer to do my French and UK taxes, so I am getting into the nitty gritty now to have a consultation.
and big thanks, I will try to ask manlobbi to pull post with my email addy. !!!! Much appreciated.

PFE beat today.....lets see how I do with it long term...didnt quite catch the low as div went over 6% , but close enough for guv'mint work as they say...


EPS of $2.05 to $2.25 expected this year. Put a PE of 15x on that and you get a price range of $30 to $33 ; add in the 6% dividend and return might be in the 10% range.... I guess its better than "guv'mint" work.

tecmo
...

FYI

Peeling Back The Layers: Exploring Pfizer Through Analyst Insights
BENZINGA 1:00 PM ET 1/31/2024
Symbol Last Price Change
PFE 27.08up 0 (0%)
QUOTES AS OF 04:10:00 PM ET 01/31/2024
8 analysts have shared their evaluations of Pfizer(PFE) during the recent three months, expressing a mix of bullish and bearish perspectives.

The table below offers a condensed view of their recent ratings, showcasing the changing sentiments over the past 30 days and comparing them to the preceding months.

Bullish Somewhat Bullish Indifferent Somewhat Bearish Bearish
Total Ratings 2 3 3 0 0
Last 30D 0 1 0 0 0
1M Ago 0 1 1 0 0
2M Ago 2 0 2 0 0
3M Ago 0 1 0 0 0

Analysts' evaluations of 12-month price targets offer additional insights, showcasing an average target of $41.25, with a high estimate of $75.00 and a low estimate of $27.00. This upward trend is evident, with the current average reflecting a 12.49% increase from the previous average price target of $36.67.

price target chart

Interpreting Analyst Ratings: A Closer Look
The standing of Pfizer(PFE) among financial experts is revealed through an in-depth exploration of recent analyst actions. The summary below outlines key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets.

Analyst Analyst Firm Action Taken Rating Current Price Target Prior Price Target
Louise Chen Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight $45.00 -
Louise Chen Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight $45.00 -
Steve Scala TD Cowen Announces Market Perform $32.00 -
Robyn Karnauskas Truist Securities Lowers Buy $36.00 $42.00
Colin Bristow UBS Lowers Neutral $27.00 $34.00
Carter Gould Barclays Lowers Equal-Weight $28.00 $34.00
Robyn Karnauskas Truist Securities Maintains Buy $42.00 -
Louise Chen Cantor Fitzgerald Maintains Overweight $75.00 -

Key Insights:
Action Taken: Analysts respond to changes in market conditions and company performance, frequently updating their recommendations. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise' or 'Lower' their stance, it reflects their reaction to recent developments related to Pfizer(PFE). This information offers a snapshot of how analysts perceive the current state of the company.
Rating: Gaining insights, analysts provide qualitative assessments, ranging from 'Outperform' to 'Underperform'. These ratings reflect expectations for the relative performance of Pfizer(PFE) compared to the broader market.
Price Targets: Analysts navigate through adjustments in price targets, providing estimates for Pfizer's(PFE) future value. Comparing current and prior targets offers insights into analysts' evolving expectations.
Assessing these analyst evaluations alongside crucial financial indicators can provide a comprehensive overview of Pfizer's(PFE) market position. Stay informed and make well-judged decisions with the assistance of our Ratings Table.

Stay up to date on Pfizer(PFE) analyst ratings.

About Pfizer
Pfizer (PFE) is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical firms, with annual sales close to $50 billion (excluding COVID-19 product sales). While it historically sold many types of healthcare products and chemicals, now prescription drugs and vaccines account for the majority of sales. Top sellers include pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13, cancer drug Ibrance, and cardiovascular treatment Eliquis. Pfizer(PFE) sells these products globally, with international sales representing close to 50% of total sales. Within international sales, emerging markets are a major contributor.

Unraveling the Financial Story of Pfizer
Market Capitalization: Boasting an elevated market capitalization, the company surpasses industry averages. This signals substantial size and strong market recognition.

Revenue Growth: Pfizer's (PFE) revenue growth over a period of 3 months has faced challenges. As of 30 September, 2023, the company experienced a revenue decline of approximately -41.55%. This indicates a decrease in the company's top-line earnings. As compared to its peers, the revenue growth lags behind its industry peers. The company achieved a growth rate lower than the average among peers in Health Care sector.

Net Margin: Pfizer's (PFE) net margin falls below industry averages, indicating challenges in achieving strong profitability. With a net margin of -18.0%, the company may face hurdles in effective cost management.

Return on Equity (ROE): Pfizer's (PFE) ROE is below industry standards, pointing towards difficulties in efficiently utilizing equity capital. With an ROE of -2.43%, the company may encounter challenges in delivering satisfactory returns for shareholders.

Return on Assets (ROA): The company's ROA is below industry benchmarks, signaling potential difficulties in efficiently utilizing assets. With an ROA of -1.09%, the company may need to address challenges in generating satisfactory returns from its assets.

Debt Management: Pfizer's (PFE) debt-to-equity ratio is below industry norms, indicating a sound financial structure with a ratio of 0.66.

The Significance of Analyst Ratings Explained
Analyst ratings serve as essential indicators of stock performance, provided by experts in banking and financial systems. These specialists diligently analyze company financial statements, participate in conference calls, and engage with insiders to generate quarterly ratings for individual stocks.

Beyond their standard evaluations, some analysts contribute predictions for metrics like growth estimates, earnings, and revenue, furnishing investors with additional guidance. Users of analyst ratings should be mindful that this specialized advice is shaped by human perspectives and may be subject to variability.

This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

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