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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
No. of Recommendations: 3
...Trump gets Rodriguez to free a number of political prisoners:
(this website marked safe for left wingers)
https://www.npr.org/2026/01/09/nx-s1-5672325/venez...GUATIRE, Venezuela — Venezuela released a number of imprisoned high-profile opposition figures, activists and journalists — both citizens and foreigners — Thursday in what the government described as a gesture to "seek peace" less than a week after former President Nicolás Maduro was captured by U.S. forces to face drug-trafficking charges.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who has been pressuring Maduro allies now leading the country to fold to his vision for the future of the oil-rich nation, said the releases came at the request of the United States. In the interview on Fox News on Thursday night, Trump praised the government of acting President Delcy Rodríguez, saying: "they've been great. ... Everything we've wanted, they've given us."
Jorge Rodríguez, brother of the acting president and head of Venezuela's National Assembly, said a "significant number" of people would be freed, but as of late Thursday night it was still not clear who or how many people would be released. The U.S. government and Venezuela's opposition have long demanded the widespread release of imprisoned politicians, critics and members of civil society. The Venezuelan government insists it does not hold prisoners for political reasons.
"Consider this a gesture by the Bolivarian (Venezuelan) government, which is broadly intended to seek peace," he announced.Trump is also working with Big Oil to get them to work on upping production there.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Trump is also working with Big Oil to get them to work on upping production there.
Let's say "controlling" production.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 6
Let's say "controlling" production.
I don't think that's right. By all indications, Trump wants oil production to increase. He thinks that the more oil comes out of areas controlled by the U.S., the better it is. Oil = power, and he wants that power. And by all accounts, all of his internal policy discussions on the matter point to him wanting oil prices to stay low.
I know you're kind of sold on the idea that Trump wants to disrupt oil production to drive prices up, because that would help oil companies somewhat. But it doesn't help Trump - it just helps the oil companies. What helps Trump is if he's the gatekeeper for people to make money pumping oil in the largest oil reserves on earth. So 100%, he wants to get oil companies to boost oil production out of Venezuela, because that's where the U.S. and/or Trump personally (depending on your level of cynicism) can gain.
Now, this is a dumb idea. It's internally inconsistent to believe that there will be a massive investment in Venezuelan oil production and that prices will stay low. It doesn't make any economic sense to invest many billions of dollars in Venezuela to extract the specific type of oil they have (which is more expensive to produce and refine) at low oil prices. So they're not going to do it. God knows we don't need another "Krugman nails it" thread, but that's pretty much his point - there's no riches to be had in Venezuelan oil, because global oil prices are at a five year low.
That doesn't mean that massive investment won't happen there, of course. If the U.S. government pays for the oil majors to go in and make all that investment, then there's a ton of money to be made at the expense of the U.S. or Venezuelan taxpayer. So everyone's going to be very interested to see if the U.S. government is willing to be on the hook for supplying the capital for all this infrastructure. If we are, then there's riches to be had building roads and laying pipe and building wells and whatnot - even if the oil doesn't sell for enough to make that worthwhile.
But there's nothing at all to suggest that Trump's plan is to throttle Venezuelan production, rather than open the spigots.
No. of Recommendations: 4
That doesn't mean that massive investment won't happen there, of course. If the U.S. government pays for the oil majors to go in and make all that investment, then there's a ton of money to be made at the expense of the U.S. or Venezuelan taxpayer. So everyone's going to be very interested to see if the U.S. government is willing to be on the hook for supplying the capital for all this infrastructure. If we are, then there's riches to be had building roads and laying pipe and building wells and whatnot - even if the oil doesn't sell for enough to make that worthwhile.
You're missing the point. A Venezuela in US orbit...does what for the global order? Who *doesn't* count Venezuela as a satellite country in that case?
No. of Recommendations: 3
You're missing the point. A Venezuela in US orbit...does what for the global order? Who *doesn't* count Venezuela as a satellite country in that case?
I was responding to a comment about future Venezuelan oil production. Obviously, there's a million things relevant to Venezuela that are separate from oil production, but those aren't the things I was responding to.
If you didn't want the thread to include discussions about oil production, why did you bring it up?
No. of Recommendations: 3
I was responding to a comment about future Venezuelan oil production. Obviously, there's a million things relevant to Venezuela that are separate from oil production, but those aren't the things I was responding to.
If you didn't want the thread to include discussions about oil production, why did you bring it up?
Huh? That doesn't make any sense.
Any future for Venezuela is going to include oil production as it is a (potentially) large percentage of their GDP. Getting it back up and running as well as making it legally available to the open market is a good thing. Venezuela benefits.
Since they benefit, they're less beholden to China, Russia and Iran thus lessening the influence of 3 very bad actors in our backyard.
The two topics are very much linked.
No. of Recommendations: 3
The two topics are very much linked.
Then how is my discussing the prospects for future oil production in Venezuela missing the point?
No. of Recommendations: 3
Then how is my discussing the prospects for future oil production in Venezuela missing the point?
Because of this:
What helps Trump is if he's the gatekeeper for people to make money pumping oil in the largest oil reserves on earth. So 100%, he wants to get oil companies to boost oil production out of Venezuela, because that's where the U.S. and/or Trump personally (depending on your level of cynicism) can gain.
Now, this is a dumb idea. It's internally inconsistent to believe that there will be a massive investment in Venezuelan oil production and that prices will stay low. It doesn't make any economic sense to invest many billions of dollars in Venezuela to extract the specific type of oil they have (which is more expensive to produce and refine) at low oil prices. So they're not going to do it. God knows we don't need another "Krugman nails it" thread, but that's pretty much his point - there's no riches to be had in Venezuelan oil, because global oil prices are at a five year low.
...missing the broader context of getting Venezuelan oil into more markets so that China gets less of it and Iran, Russia and China have vastly decreased influence in the western hemisphere.
Because that's what all this is about. I get that the left wing sees "Trump is just doing X for to line his own pockets". Trump is many things. But one thing he understands better than any President we've had in a long time is who the threat is. That's China.
No. of Recommendations: 0
What helps Trump is if he's the gatekeeper for people to make money pumping oil in the largest oil reserves on earth.
"Gatekeeper" works as well as "control". What the industry does not want is more supply on the market, which is what would happen if Venezuelan production was returned to where it was 20 years ago. That is where the "arty" part comes in: disrupting supply from other sources. Remember how the price of gas doubled when the Iranian revolution broke out? If the three amigos have control of Venezuelan production, as well as USian, they can charge a heck of a lot of money for the oil they produce.
What I'm wondering, is what excuse will be used to take Iraqi production off-line, after Iran has been knocked out.
According to the net sifter, starting in late 2025, the US forces in Iraq started moving into the Kurdish controlled area.
y late 2025 and into 2026, U.S. troop levels in Iraq were slated for reduction from around 2,500 to
fewer than 2,000, with most consolidating in Erbil (Kurdistan) and a smaller contingent (around 250-300) staying at Al-Asad base, supporting the anti-ISIS mission in Syria, as part of a transition from a combat mission to a bilateral security partnership by late 2026, according to agreements from late 2024 and 2025.
Key Details:
Original Presence: Around 2,500 U.S. troops were in Iraq.
Drawdown Plan (2025-2026): A phased reduction to under 2,000 personnel, with troops moving from Baghdad/Al-Asad to northern Iraq (Erbil).
Core Role: Remaining forces act as advisors and trainers for Iraqi forces, shifting focus to the Syria mission.
Timeline: The drawdown started in late 2025, with plans to solidify the new posture by late 2026.
So our guys are out of the line of fire, if the Pirate King decides to "punish Iraq" by bombing the southern oil fields and loading terminals.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 7
...missing the broader context of getting Venezuelan oil into more markets so that China gets less of it and Iran, Russia and China have vastly decreased influence in the western hemisphere.
Ah. You misunderstood my point.
I wasn't talking about the effect of selling Venezuelan oil. I was assessing whether it was likely to happen. It might be a good thing for U.S. national security interests for U.S. oil majors to go in and rebuild Venezuela's oil economy regardless of whether it's profitable to do so. But they won't go in and do it unless it's profitable to do so. Because they want to make money, not advance national security.
The reason I couched it the way I did is because of other conversations I've had with Steve, which you might not have read. Steve is of the opinion that Trump is motivated by a desire to help his oil-producing supporters by increasing the global price of oil...which goal would be advanced by limiting, not increasing, global production. So in other conversations, he's discussed the impact of the Venezuelan operation as being motivated by a desire to make sure that Venezuela isn't producing a lot more oil - and that such motivation would underlie other geopolitical activity in other parts of the world, like Iran.
All my points still stand, though. It's a dumb strategy, because the private oil companies that are capable of making the type of investments in Venezuelan oil infrastructure are not going to be willing to do so. That's for a variety of reasons, but primarily because the price of oil is too low for that to be profitable. There's no riches to be had in Venezuela, which means there's little private money to be invested in Venezuela. If competing with China is your main goal, then cutting U.S. foreign development funding is pretty dumb - because you can't always replace the soft power of U.S. federal funds with the soft power of private corporate involvement. China has their Belt and Road, and since that's a government program they get to decide to send billions to countries like Venezuela. The U.S. has gutted most of the avenues where the U.S. government was in control of whether to send billions to other countries, and we're going to see in Venezuela that you can't really replace that with private funding.
As for the idea that increasing Venezuelan oil production hurts China, that's silly. Oil is a fungible product. If Venezuela's oil production increases (other things being equal), it will be easier for China to get oil. Either they'll buy some of Venezuela's increased production, or they'll just buy the oil that the people who buy Venezuela's oil would have bought. Since Venezuela supplied a rounding error's worth of Chinese oil imports (a few percentage points), and since China has virtually no supply concerns for their other suppliers (mostly Saudi and other middle Eastern suppliers and Russia), it's all a wash.
No. of Recommendations: 1
one thing he understands better than any President we've had in a long time is who the threat is.
Obama understood it. Remember the Asian pivot? :)
No. of Recommendations: 0
Oil is a fungible product. If Venezuela's oil production increases (other things being equal), it will be easier for China to get oil. Either they'll buy some of Venezuela's increased production, or they'll just buy the oil that the people who buy Venezuela's oil would have bought. According to the net sifter, about 90% of Iranian exports go to China. About 30% of Iraqi output goes to China. USian control of Venezuela, while knocking out Iranian and Iraqi production, would put China in a bind.
Taking Iran and Iraq offline would also increase volume and profits for Trump's buddy, Putin, as Russia is China's single largest source.
Visualizing China’s Crude Oil Imports by Countryhttps://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-crude-oil-...Trump the Living God might not trust the three amigos to keep his plan under their hat, so he nudges them to get ready to produce a lot more in Venezuela, to cash in, without telling them why.
No-one believed Rant #1 when I proposed it over 20 years ago, either.
Steve
No. of Recommendations: 2
one thing he understands better than any President we've had in a long time is who the threat is.
Oh, yes, and he is constantly telling us who the threat is: American citizens who disagree with him, or as he says 'radical, leftist, terrorist scum'...etc etc.
In reality Trump is the real threat to the US. His narcissistic megalomania may ruin us forever.
