Post #5363 by james22 on the Berkshire Hathaway board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ❤

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First, the future can easily be far, far worse than anything seen in the past. Why would anyone believe otherwise?

Sure, the "so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time” (Taleb).

But there's many reasons it's unlikely: https://dariusforoux.com/stock-market-crash/

For poors, they cannot afford to insure against such an unlikely event.

Better they cut withdrawals only if they need to.

In any case, the more likely risks aren't financial anyway: medical, legal, political:

"Any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless."

http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/901/hell3.htm

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