Nestle now a better idea at current prices
Jim resides in Europe and would love to hear his input on NSRGY at current price.


The good news is that the price is back where it was five years ago: cheapest in ages.
The bad news is that the sales and earnings are also still right where they were five years ago.

I have enormous respect for the firm and the many merits of management. And indeed many of its products which I consider high quality, unlike some of the Hershey crap I'm invested in. And I am not one that requires high visible growth rates...a modest growth rate can also be good, depending on pricing and the goals of the portfolio.

But...hey, five years is quite a while. I don't know enough about the firm to delve deeply enough to find a plausible reason to think this situation is going to change materially any time soon. It's entirely possible that there is such a reason but I don't know it. As I don't know it, I'm sitting on my hands on this one.

And of course there is the small ghost at the banquet: the wholesale cost of cocoa is spot on 4 times what it was a year and a half ago. There are really good reasons to think the problem is not a short term one. They do WAY more things than sell chocolate, but the whole confectionery sector is facing a long term head wind. That has to be overcome with some other correspondingly good news.

Jim