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With all due respect, I cannot be silent anymore. Manlobbi has been more than kind, gracious and diplomatic, but few are listening. Please count back 22 posts or so from my own, all the way back to Manlobbi’s last appeal to this board. Except for Berkfan, there isn’t one mention whatsoever of Warren Buffett or BRK. I come here every day looking for astute analysis and discussion of the stock we all love so much but it is seriously being eroded and derailed by constant chatter and diatribe about living abroad, chat GBT, programming code, political biases, and everything else in between that has nothing to do with the stated content of this board. If you can’t beat them join them I guess. So maybe that means that this jetjockey can also just start up a random conversation about an NTSB investigation into a CRJ landing at Reagan in close proximity to a Blackhawk and then tie that in somehow to Berkshire’s Flight Safety. C’mon folks…let’s bring this board back to its OT origins (by OT, I truly mean ON TOPIC!). Manlobbi cannot police this, but you can. Thank you.

C’mon folks…let’s bring this board back to its OT origins (by OT, I truly mean ON TOPIC!). Manlobbi cannot police this, but you can. Thank you.

In my not insubstantial internet experience the best way to do this is to lead by example, and to ignore it (either with mental discipline, or by using the feature that the site administrator took the time to implement to ignore threads).

Since I like Berkshire and statistics, I'll do so with a new post after this. Please consider replying to me there or creating a new post that isn't on this thread!

<<In my not insubstantial internet experience the best way to do this is to lead by example, and to ignore it >>>

That’s been tried repeatedly. It has not worked. It gets worse and worse. My favorite is the person who repeatedly posts and links OT and advises it’s really not OT..lol.

Perhaps the problem is not OT at all.
Rather, it might be that there is a dearth of interesting,
informative, stimulating and insightful posts about BRK.

If that situation were to change, OT posts would
be ignored, for the most part.

vez

Perhaps the problem is not OT at all.
Rather, it might be that there is a dearth of interesting,
informative, stimulating and insightful posts about BRK.


Yup.

"interesting, informative, stimulating and insightful and NEW posts about BRK."

Which is probably a Good Thing(™), investment-wise.

Perhaps the problem is not OT at all.
Rather, it might be that there is a dearth of interesting,
informative, stimulating and insightful posts about BRK.

I agree that political posts have no place on this board. However, posts about DITM leaps, or another good stock to buy seem ok to me.

Well, now that you mention it, let’s see what two wise old gentleman have to say about LEAPS, options, and other forms of investing leverage. Is it wise to ignore their counsel or is there really that large of an audience on here that dabbles in trading BRK using leverage? Is it boredom that creates this temptation to eke out a few more bps in performance? Although I have seen option discussion evolve into an almost religious fervor on here lately, I sense that the silent majority of subscribers, in their heart of hearts, probably are LTBH investors, at least as it pertains to BRK. And by LTBH, I don’t just mean through thick and thin. There are times when asset allocations need adjustment as one ages. I’m just talking about the advantages of making as few decisions as possible during an investing lifetime…the 20 punch analogy, if you will, and then sticking with your discipline. I really don’t see this as boring at all…in fact, it’s actually quite exciting to witness this rolling snowball effect over time. Just as there are sophisticated mathematical models that backcast and channel the BRK value/price wonderfully over time, there are also other mental models that seem to be working well for some of us. By that, I mean the discipline to simply “buy the damn stock” and hold over time.

Behavioral finance that emphasizes “lethargy bordering on sloth…as the cornerstone of investment strategy,” along with inaction, is not often discussed or heralded on here as an effective approach but it really is just as equally important, if not more so, than those who are nimble enough to profit from timing models. I applaud those who have audited results that can beat a Rip Van Wrinkle approach, but we can’t all be like Jim, nor do I want to be like him. It requires a steep learning curve, and a willingness to dive into a level of complexity that cannot be easily absorbed without a lot of commitment and financial background. No offense to his rich data driven approach, but it’s easy to get lost in the weeds.

Oops…and as I just looked up on my stock screen, BRK just hit another new high. Oh well…I guess I’ll go back to being mindlessly boring again! 😆

https://youtu.be/E02R8Te9o50?si=wnN0n2njBjuNsw8L

...we can’t all be like Jim, nor do I want to be like him. It requires a steep learning curve, and a willingness to dive into a level of complexity that cannot be easily absorbed without a lot of commitment and financial background. No offense to his rich data driven approach, but it’s easy to get lost in the weeds.

A a side comment, I'm actually a big fan of long term buy and hold and largely ignoring the valuation squiggles in the interim, for those who have the time horizon. You're right.
I'm also fine with trading a bit more if it suits one's portfolio goals: juice things a bit by weighting positions from time to time towards those with the best price/value situation, if it suits you and you have the skill to value things to some degree.

The only thing I'm not a fan of is the risks for those who might naively mix the two: ignoring valuation levels as a long term holder might, but then expecting decent returns in the short to medium term without considering valuation levels. For example, at current valuation levels there is no evidence-based reason to think that Berkshire is a good investment pick for time frames of under (say) five years. "Tinkerbell" investing annoys me : )

Back of the envelope: P/B is over 1.75 right now.
Let's say book tracks value reasonably well, and both grow at inflation + 7%/year for years to come. That's a hair low compared to history but perhaps a hair high for the future, so a "middling" expectation.
If the price in four years is 1.4 times book (a hair higher than the average of the last 15 years), that's a return of inflation + 1.1%/year, a bit lower than TIPS are currently offering.

Jim

The only thing I'm not a fan of is the risks for those who might naively mix the two: ignoring valuation levels as a long term holder might, but then expecting decent returns in the short to medium term without considering valuation levels.

Agree - my BRK is in a vault, some of it over 25 years old - but now that I'm in the draw-down phase of my life, I do dabble in valuations a little bit.

I've mentioned before ( https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=768093605 ) my conclusion from both listening to Jim and admiring the albatross: "the trick seems to be: from a complex dynamic system extract a little, frequently, while at the same time not appearing to work at it very hard."

So, I sell for living expenses 4.5% of my currently-held BRK share pool annually, by selling 1.125% each Jan 1, Apr 1, July 1, October 1. But I will can't help trying to game the system a bit, typically taking the form of pre-selling a tranche (or two) when the P/B reaches levels Mr Buffett won't touch.

So with this atypical current run, I sold the Apr 1 tranche five weeks ago for $482, and the Jun 1 last week @ $522. I might even be tempted to sell the Oct 1 portion if it keeps on this way, say to $550 - $575.

But I'm certainly not counting on it.

- sutton

Well, now that you mention it, let’s see what two wise old gentleman have to say about LEAPS, options, and other forms of investing leverage.
........
I sense that the silent majority of subscribers, in their heart of hearts, probably are LTBH investors, at least as it pertains to BRK.

I hope with your post against OT post that started this thread you did not also mean the constant talk (by me and others) about options. As expressed in your post using options etc. might be completely contrary your LTBH philosophy - - - but as it's always about BRK options (Years ago it was about Tesla, but that's long gone) those posts are perfectly on topic - just by posters with a different mentality.

As expressed in your post using options etc. might be completely contrary your LTBH philosophy - - - but as it's always about BRK options (Years ago it was about Tesla, but that's long gone) those posts are perfectly on topic - just by posters with a different mentality.

Maybe on topic for you, but I would submit it’s not on topic for Charlie or Warren. They clearly counseled against it for the dumb average know-nothing investor like me. If you wish to do put options on BRK, be my guest, but I suggest it might be a bit of modest speculation. You once implied LTBH is boring, but I submit it is not, because those of us who have held a large position in BRK and added to it in a very big way over the last 30 years have generated substantial net worth by this “boring” approach. That IS NOT BORING AT ALL. In fact, it’s quite exciting! I ask you honestly — are you investing a significant part of your net worth in options or are you just nipping around the edges a bit for some pocket money. If it’s just nipping around the edges then the discussion on the board advocating option trading is taking on a bit more disproportionate emphasis compared to those who commit heavily to this stock over the long term. Wealth creation is achieved with conviction by committing a lion’s share of one’s net worth to good businesses and equity positions that will compound like a snowball over time. Can options create large net worth? Show me some proof of successful option traders who have bested Warren. So, IMHO, that’s why LTBH is VERY ON TOPIC, and not something to be drowned out amidst all the incessant discussion about options trading. You’re not going to commit a lot of your net worth to options but a LTBH investor like myself and others on here will have the intestinal fortitude, iron wrought discipline, conviction, and the cajones to ride out the drawdowns by staying the course and committing a large portion of their net worth to a process that will work over time. That does create wealth…just like WEB who has 99% of BRK in his name. Go back and watch that video again and see what Charlie said to everyone and the laughter which ensued. “I don’t think the affluent investors here got where they are today with LEAPS.” Or something along those lines. He’s right! I appreciate your point of view, but I disagree.

I don't mess with options, but as long as investors are discussing BRK I'm happy to hear the way the posters are thinking.

So maybe that means that this jetjockey can also just start up a random conversation about an NTSB investigation into a CRJ landing at Reagan in close proximity to a Blackhawk

Actually I wouldn't mind a bit of that either. I have confidence that it would be some of the best info I'd find on the 'net. This board is not too busy, and it has a wealth of intelligent people whose knowledge I respect. Oil and gas insight from Texirish, some food and wine thoughts from the Euro crew, it is all good to me. An interest in BRK is a good filter for finding people worth listening to. No need to click an OT tag if I'm not interested.

True what you’re saying but Msnlobbi has ALREADY CREATED other boards that will address various interests and other OT discussions, so why not go there if diverse subject matter is of interest? What I am more concerned about is a tendency for a few on here to take the BRK board so far off the subject of Berkshire that it can drown out discussion about the stock itself. Then, the OT discussion begins to feed on itself. Once it get’s going, it takes on a momentum all of its own and can therefore dominate. Sometimes, if I ignore, I may have to ignore a page or two of threads to find BRK. I will admit that since I began this original thread, virtually everyone has done an excellent job in restraining those impulses and have stayed OT (on topic). Good job and thank you!

Maybe on topic for you, but I would submit it’s not on topic for Charlie or Warren. They clearly counseled against it for the dumb average know-nothing investor like me. If you wish to do put options on BRK, be my guest, but I suggest it might be a bit of modest speculation.

Whether Charlie or Warren would counsel against the use of Berkshire options has nothing to do with whether that is On topic or Off topic for a Berkshire board.
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You once implied LTBH is boring, but I submit it is not, because those of us who have held a large position in BRK and added to it in a very big way over the last 30 years have generated substantial net worth by this “boring” approach. That IS NOT BORING AT ALL. In fact, it’s quite exciting!

A) Whether something is boring or not has nothing to do with whether it's Off topic or On topic.

B) What's boring or not again is a view, a completely subjective personal opinion. Those personal opinions, actually the disliking/aversion of discussions about options etc. (even when it's only about Berkshire options) bring you to wish it to disappear from here to other boards. Others might think differently. The only halfway objective tool to find out, polls, unfortunately do not exist here. There was a poll about this issue on the old forum, with four options: "1 Berkshire only", "2 Berkshire plus investing in general" - - - and two even broader options. If I remember correctly a big part of the community did not want the discussions to be limited to "1" (which would equal what you mentioned in your first post of this thread, to only posts containing words like "Buffett" or "Berkshire"), but wanted to see also broader investment themes discussed. Only the very broad options 3+4 did get practically no support.
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I ask you honestly — are you investing a significant part of your net worth in options or are you just nipping around the edges a bit for some pocket money. If it’s just nipping around the edges then the discussion on the board advocating option trading is taking on a bit more disproportionate emphasis compared to those who commit heavily to this stock over the long term.

My BRK puts currently represent 6-7% of net assets.

Censorship is hitting too close to home these days. Extraordinary rendition off the streets for writing an editorial is troubling my mind. Encountering demands for censorship on this board is an unexpected addition to my censorship anxieties. I’m quite capable of ignoring bothersome posters and uninteresting threads. Thanks for your advocacy though.

Well, I'm certainly not trying to censor anyone on here...that's hyperbole and a bit of a reach. I was just politely suggesting some balance and that we bring back just a lil'bit more focus on BRK, the stock. It was starting to veer off for a while in other directions, and that's fine. Admittedly, I came in the room, threw a grenade and broke some glass, so I guess its effect had a mixed reaction. But, I have noticed a wonderful readjustment these last several days and have enjoyed reading many of the more recent posts. That being said, I probably confounded the issues and conflated option strategies, especially with regards to BRK, with other off topic things, so I stand corrected.

Not to entirely excuse my point of view, but maybe I'm just a bit jaded and sensitive. I'm now 70. I responded defensively because of a few unfortunate option trades and a speculative foray into precious metals that I made during my early twenties. I got stung and vowed never to go down that road ever again. In fact, I have pretty much forgotten all of the mechanics, so much so that I even have trouble following the extended discussion here on trading BRK options on this board. My eyes glaze over when I read a long narrative full of numbers, percentages, and all the various considerations and multiplicity of decisions that go into when to hold, fold, or roll -- it's also been a long time too since I opened a college textbook on differential calculus or having to work with coefficients and integers, so it's easy to get lost when the mathematicians come out to showcase their brilliant analysis. When trading options, it requires a steep learning curve and is not for the faint of heart. I think those who are novices probably need to read a book or two, take some classes, or do some paper trading, because it can be complicated and very error prone, unless you have been doing it for a very long time. I find it challenging to follow the guided discussion on here sometimes, because it may be assumed everyone knows what you're talking about. While I fully agree with Newfydog that there are a plethora of intelligent folks on here with amazing backgrounds in their own distinctive disciplines, it's probably also reasonable to assume that many of us may not come close to following much of their erudite discussion.

Being able to strip a complex subject down to its bare essentials so that it can be easily understandable for the lowest common denominator on here is sometimes very challenging, but a unique and welcomed gift. I'll never forget one scene in my life many years ago, when I was at the Embassy in Paris. The Ambassador, a Reagan protégé, just got done dressing down several of the State Department FSOs during a routine daily brief. It went something along the lines of, "Instead of me reading pages and pages of your flowery language, why not get to the point?" He pointed towards us and said "Can't you put something together in one page, like these fellas over here in the Defense Attaché Office?" Well, I learned early on in my career that if you can't quickly adopt a military briefing style and say what you need to say in 5-10 minutes with 3 main points, then that General had every right to kick you out of his office. 🤦🏻‍♂️ 😫 So where am I going with this? I just want to thank you all in advance for doing your best in making this board's discussions as succinct and understandable for all. 😉

I've reconsidered my harsh criticism. On second thought, I think it's very instructive to read about BRK option strategies from a behavioral finance point of view. Although it may be difficult for novices and know-nothing investors like me to fully assimilate such discussion, it does nevertheless intuitively illustrate the contrast between those who embrace "inaction" or "lethargy bordering on sloth...as the cornerstone of investment strategy," and those with a short term orientation who feel compelled to scratch an itch, and find it more exciting to trade.

I'll put this to bed now...nuff said on this thread that I started, unless someone wants the last word. I just realized my 3 main points turned into 4! My regrets! 😂 Carry on!

One more point I want to mention, regarding

Msnlobbi has ALREADY CREATED other boards that will address various interests and other OT discussions

I am not sure if this ever finer granularity actually is a good thing. Personally I do not want to have numerous different tabs open, one for each specialised board which might have interesting posts interesting, with the need for regularly refreshing all those tabs and looking at each one. Too much hassle. Far more than having "The usual suspects" discuss at least most things under one roof instead of a dozen "geographically" separated ones.

Especially because there is one inherent problem: This increasing granularity feeds on itself, like a bureaucracy. Bureaucracies forever expand, they never shrink. It's a one-way-street, and even a guy with a chainsaw is dilusionary if he really thinks he can change that, like Don Quichotte in his fight against windmills.

This might go in the same one-way-direction: Ever finer granularity, ever more specialised boards, with simplicity being the victim.

This I posted a while ago to answer a question by saying that my BRB puts are a very significant part of my portfolio and not just "nipping around":

My BRK puts currently represent 6-7% of net assets.

The other serious part are my Berkshire shares themselves which (I sold a lot lately) still represent over 50% of net assets.

An update: Today those BRK puts did gain a full 10% of net assets and I sold all June ones as they gained on average 170% and are the ones closest to expiration. Nevertheless thanks to today´s extreme gains the remaining Sep+Dec+Jan ones probably still represent at least those 6-7% of net assets, so still a significant part.

One more comment: I would NEVER do such extreme investing, no, clearly SPECULATING(!), with anything apart from Berkshire, as past experience with Tesla and Saas are proof that I am completely unable to even halfway correct predict what any other stock will do --- and whether that with BRK puts was/is just luck ... very very possible/likely.

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