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Yep, we MUST do whatever it takes or else?

Or else what? A massive government shutdown, a fiscal infarction ending all hope for our country. For God's sake (there it is vsg), just pass the CR and save us all.

We have seen this movie plenty of times and guess what, we have survived each and every shutdown with the average Citizen barely noticing any effect. SS checks will still go out. We will hear about all the poor government workers who will be without paycheck for a while, but back pay is always restored when a spending bill is ultimately passed. So the period while they wait really amounts to additional paid vacation. Plus only 6% of them were coming to the office anyway.

Kill this dumpster fire of a CR, especially as it exists now, 1,547 pages with all the larding heaped in. It won't hurt at all except to give Hakeem Jeffries, et al a talking point and nobody cares about that anymore.

We have seen this movie plenty of times and guess what, we have survived each and every shutdown with the average Citizen barely noticing any effect.

Well, we have a trip to DC that we're taking at the end of the month with the Albabykids. They were very much hoping to go to Air & Space and the National Archives. Those might end up being closed. Certainly not something that affects whether we "survive" the shutdown, but there are still impacts - minor as this is.

You're right that we've seen this movie plenty of times before. And we know the ending. It always ends with the parties pretty much striking the same deal they were looking to strike before the shutdown. It doesn't matter whether the deal is wrecked by Newt Gingrich making a point, or Ted Cruz making a point, or (now) Elon and Vivek making a point: the shutdown puts massive pressure on the majority party of the holdout chamber of Congress, and eventually they have to agree to the terms that are necessary to either get the votes in their chamber or pass the other chamber.

Unless Trump can whip every single Republican, including the ones who vote against CR's as a matter of principle, they need Democratic votes. Those Democratic votes come with Democratic priorities being met. That's what comes with having appropriations power in a Legislative body - you have to put together a deal that a majority of members will support. There's no evidence that such a deal exists on the terms that Musk and Trump have laid down, but we'll see what happens.

But I know what happened the last dozen times we saw this movie, so the most likely outcome is that we end up with something very similar to what was just negotiated. And so the shutdown doesn't accomplish anything (other than create inconvenience for people who want to use non-essential services).

A massive government shutdown, a fiscal infarction ending all hope for our country.

Another straw man. It still is an inauspicious start that Trump and his cronies prefer this show rather than something smooth. Why weren't they advising Mike? Trump should be in the diver's seat here, and he's not. It's a helluva way to run a railroad.

Past CR’s have been 19 pages.

This one is over 1,500. Thinking people might wonder why that is and why the democrats want this so badly.

Thinking people might wonder why that is and why the democrats want this so badly.

I mean...it's not hard to figure that out? This is a must-pass, and Democrats control the Senate. They have a lot of leverage, so they've included a lot of stuff they want in the bill. As well as some stuff that GOP Senators want (like the disaster relief for NC that Thom Tillis insists have to be in the package). It's not really a deep mystery here.

The GOP can always say "no" to the Democrats and their Senate colleagues...but then they have to find the votes to pass a "clean" CR themselves. And they didn't have those votes previously (there are numerous hardcore GOP members who reject CR's on principle). So unless Trump and Musk can whip them from the left, which seems hard to do, the GOP won't have the votes to move Plan B either.

If they push into the next Congress, they gain control of the Senate, but have an even smaller House majority. So....they still need Democratic votes. And they'll be trying to do that while (presumably) trying to pick a new Speaker, manage the Trump transition over on the Senate side, and being moving on their early priorities (border, tax package, etc.).

Certainly not something that affects whether we "survive" the shutdown, but there are still impacts - minor as this is.

With all due respect to your family’s upcoming trip, I think there is something in between “survival” and a family trip.

Here is a link to the Peter Peterson Foundation (former Secretary of Commerce under Nixon) discussing Four Reasons Why a Government Shutdown Is Harmful, even if short-lived.


https://www.pgpf.org/article/four-reasons-why-a-go...

I mean...it's not hard to figure that out?

Yaah, what I need is a visual of that. I'm understand much better if there's series of charts I can reference. Otherwise it becomes a verbal abstract. Any tricks on remembering these things? :)

Yaah, what I need is a visual of that. I'm understand much better if there's series of charts I can reference. Otherwise it becomes a verbal abstract. Any tricks on remembering these things? :)

Here's a picture, illustrating the different coalitions in the House. It's from when McCarthy was Speaker, but the broad contours remain:

https://archive.ph/jMCnZ

In a nutshell, the GOP caucus contains members with different political philosophies. There's are some members who prioritize fiscal hardline positions above all others, and there are others who don't.

But you don't really need to keep track of it. Just remember that in a Congress where no one reaches across the aisle except when there's a must-pass bill coming along, the only way for an individual member to get their priorities adopted is to get it into a must-pass bill. So they're all incentivized to insist that their main objective has to be reflected in the must-pass before Leadership gets their vote. So the areas affected by hurricanes won't support a CR unless it also includes hurricane relief; the states devastated by China's agricultural reprisals to the Trump (then later Biden) tariffs insist on farm relief, etc. Meanwhile, the hardcore fiscal conservatives use the must-pass to insist that their priorities be reflected: no CR, no stopgap, but an actual budget that reduces the size of government expenditure.

With only three or four votes to play with, it can't be solved with just GOP votes. At least, not by Johnson. So Johnson has to go to Jefferies and cut a deal. Unless Trump is willing to whip Ralph Norman or Chip Roy to force them to swallow the repeal of the debt ceiling, or Glenn Thompson (Republican chair of the House Ag Committee) to drop his insistence that he'll vote against any CR that lacks ag relief, or any of a hundred other members and Senators to give up their priorities that were included in the CR package....well, it will be tough going.

And so the shutdown doesn't accomplish anything (other than create inconvenience for people who want to use non-essential services).

Let’s not forget the essential workers who will have to work without pay until the children in Congress stop throwing a hissy fit.

I mean...it's not hard to figure that out? This is a must-pass, and Democrats control the Senate.

This makes me think that the CR is a now or never thing. A partial shutdown is looming on Saturday. They could try to get something passed after an abbreviated Christmas break and before the next Congress is seated (Jan 3??). If they don't get it by then, the House is down for the count until they elect a speaker. I don't expect Johnson to sail through, as there can be zero defections with a 217-215 House. So there's at least a couple of days and some political capital spent. Or we could have another week (or longer) free for all like we did 2 years ago. Then you've got the problem you mention of the couple of GOP members who will never vote for a CR. So you've got to get some House Democrats on board. That's going to take some concessions to something(s) the Democrats want, which will be a tough pill for many MAGA members to swallow.

And we haven't made it over to the Senate yet with their issues.

Lastly, there's the wild card in the White House. The President-elect will be clamoring to put this all off until Jan 21 so that he can be the one to claim the glory for getting the shutdown ended. (It will almost certainly be framed as the "Biden" shutdown even though it had nothing to do with Biden.)

Looking like a very Grinch Christmas this year.

--Peter

PS - How's the Santa Claus rally in the stock market doing??

Lastly, there's the wild card in the White House. The President-elect will be clamoring to put this all off until Jan 21 so that he can be the one to claim the glory for getting the shutdown ended. (It will almost certainly be framed as the "Biden" shutdown even though it had nothing to do with Biden.)

I would think he'd want it resolved before then. The shutdown would step on his inaugural festivities - if not directly (is all that event planning performed by "essential" personnel?), then indirectly by closing a lot of things that guests and visitors would want to do while in DC.

Plus, Trump seems to want to go fast. I don't know if that's because he realizes he's a lame duck, or is aware that the GOP's hairs-breadth majority in the House is likely to go away in 2026, or just because that's his preference - but either way, if the House and Senate are tied up in knots over funding the government during the first few weeks of his Administration, he loses time.

Unless Trump is willing to whip Ralph Norman or Chip Roy to force them to swallow the repeal of the debt ceiling,

Replying to my own post, Trump's fired the first shot at Roy:

President-elect Trump on Thursday encouraged Republicans in Texas to consider a primary challenge to Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) after he blamed the congressman for “getting in the way” of a push to raise the debt ceiling as part of government funding talks.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5049317-dona...

"We have seen this movie plenty of times and guess what, we have survived each and every shutdown with the average Citizen barely noticing any effect." - BHM

"Well, we have a trip to DC that we're taking at the end of the month with the Albabykids. They were very much hoping to go to Air & Space and the National Archives. Those might end up being closed. Certainly not something that affects whether we "survive" the shutdown, but there are still impacts - minor as this is." - Albaby

Many years ago when the Republicans were holding the economy hostage with their shutdowns under Obama, many of the Republicans were doing the say things by saying it was no big deal and that it was better to shut down the government for a while. The kicker though was that a story spread through conservative media about how one of the National Parks was closed down (Maybe Mt Rushmore or Yellowstone, I forget which) and how Obama did it intentionally to punish the people who wanted to shut down the government.

It was one of those "Keep your government hands off of my Medicare" moments. Conservatives news outlets were able to convince their viewers that shutting down the government was a good thing, but at the same time provoke misdirected outrage at Obama about government facilities being closed. More evidence for Alpha's decree that you can't fix stupid.

"You're right that we've seen this movie plenty of times before. And we know the ending. It always ends with the parties pretty much striking the same deal they were looking to strike before the shutdown. It doesn't matter whether the deal is wrecked by Newt Gingrich making a point, or Ted Cruz making a point, or (now) Elon and Vivek making a point: the shutdown puts massive pressure on the majority party of the holdout chamber of Congress, and eventually they have to agree to the terms that are necessary to either get the votes in their chamber or pass the other chamber.

Unless Trump can whip every single Republican, including the ones who vote against CR's as a matter of principle, they need Democratic votes. Those Democratic votes come with Democratic priorities being met. That's what comes with having appropriations power in a Legislative body - you have to put together a deal that a majority of members will support. There's no evidence that such a deal exists on the terms that Musk and Trump have laid down, but we'll see what happens." - Albaby

You are correct of course. The shut down will end the same way all of the others did. By making essentially the same deal that was available before the shutdown. Trump knows this. Johnson knows this. Most Republican legislators know this. What this does though is that this allows Trump to do two things. One, by killing the bill he is showing his dominance over the party and making it appear to the people he is calling the shots. Two, it allows him to look like a hero that when he is in office a deal finally gets done. He will brag it was made because of him. Plus, even if it is an objectively worse deal (for Republicans), it will be easy to sell it to the stupid masses that it is the best deal ever and only he could have made it.

Nothing like creating a minor emergency so you can look like a hero by fixing it.

"But I know what happened the last dozen times we saw this movie, so the most likely outcome is that we end up with something very similar to what was just negotiated. And so the shutdown doesn't accomplish anything (other than create inconvenience for people who want to use non-essential services)." - Albaby

The shutdown does more than just create a little bit of inconvenience for people who want to go to National Parks. Employees at those non-essential services do not get paid during shutdowns. Sure the usually get back pay after the shutdown ends, but it can cause real havoc on households that live paycheck to paycheck. Shutdowns also create uncertainty in government contracts and spending. For example, the U.S. government pays more for certain defense spending than it would under normal budgeting procedures. Government contractors cannot plan for the future so they are constantly hiring and letting go of workers based off of Continuing Resolutions, shutdowns, or normal budgeting. That turnover has real world costs.

It all doesn't matter though to the Party of Stupid. What is a little bit of inconvenience and pain for people if it otherwise would make Trump look like a hero in their minds.

I would think he'd want it resolved before then.

He's certainly not helping matters by asking that removal of the debt ceiling be included in it.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-congress-has-t...


is all that event planning performed by "essential" personnel?

They will be deemed essential by Trump. I know you try not to do this, but you've got to think like a narcissistic sociopath when dealing with Trump. The most selfish path is the most likely path. So the event planning will get done. Besides, isn't that mostly the Inaugural Committee, which is part of the campaign mechanism? Sure, security will fall under Secret Service purview, but much of the rest is the President-elect's job and not the job of the government as a whole.

then indirectly by closing a lot of things that guests and visitors would want to do while in DC.

What his invited guests do other than the inauguration itself is not important to Trump. And if some extra-important guest needs some special service, he'll just order that the requested service be opened. Someone important to Trump wants to visit the Smithsonian? He'll order a private tour. Paying for that is none of his concern. Those are underlings who are fungible and expendable.

Trump seems to want to go fast

He wants to go fast on his agenda. And his agenda consists of things for which he can claim credit or off of which he can personally profit. By creating chaos - by pushing for a government shutdown that is in place as he takes office - he can push the blame onto Biden and take credit for ending it. That just screams classic Trump. "Only I can fix it!"

If there are a sufficient number of adults in the halls of Congress to get the CR done by Saturday, it will get done. If not, I suspect we're looking at a shutdown until February.

--Peter

They will be deemed essential by Trump.

Trump doesn't get a say in it. He's not President until he's inaugurated. So if there is anyone that normally works on preparing for an inauguration that's a non-essential person under the existing, standard classification of such people - well, that person isn't going to work on Trump's inauguration.

He wants to go fast on his agenda. And his agenda consists of things for which he can claim credit or off of which he can personally profit.

Sure - but some of that requires Congress to be doing stuff. If they start off the new Congress with a clean plate, then they can get to work on passing a reconciliation bill with increased border funding (for example). If they start off with two weeks of fighting over a stopgap funding proposal, they have two weeks' delay on all their other stuff.

But you don't really need to keep track of it. Just remember that in a Congress where no one reaches across the aisle except when there's a must-pass bill coming along, the only way for an individual member to get their priorities adopted is to get it into a must-pass bill.

Thanks, that is something I think I can remember.

A friend's wife said he was taking a pill to improve memory. Interested, I asked him what the name of it was. He said he couldn't recall. :)

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