Post #517 by intercst on the Retirement Investing board

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Bengen has finally realized that 50-year pay out period returns for the S&P 500 converge to a narrow band. Though I would quibble with the 4.2% figure. While we can calculate historical "safe" withdrawal rates to 3 or 4 decimal places, I don't believe you can predict the future with more than one significant digit of accuracy, thus I'd say the safe withdrawal rate is closer to 4% than 3 or 5. Of course, the SWR for pay out periods of less than 30 years should rise above 4%.

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intercst

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