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The week's question
In March 2025, in the thread "Re: OT, out", Umm asked the members: "Do you think it is because America is made up of magical soil that makes businesses based in America magically profitable?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks G / Alphabet (GOOG)
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 446 
Subject: Re: Long Term Valuation
Date: 09/21/26 11:55 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 9
Interesting choice of numbers...the ending valuation (~50 x FCF) seems a bit optimistic for the end of a potential investment horizon. That would be counting on the market many years in the future will still be anticipating a vast rate/amount of growth. Which may be true, or may not.

I'd be more likely to pencil in an average of 5% in the stretch 5-10 years out (i.e., 20 x FCF). Owner earnings aren't going to exceed free cash flow, and I never assuming anything is going to trade at a multiple above the teens many years in the future. It happens on occasion, but it can't reliably be forecast.

Jim
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This community has written 446 posts about Alphabet. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Judge's Ruling · 24 recs · 2025
Alphabet's Century Long Bet · 23 recs · 2026
Will the Sexy Six Strut or Stumble? · 19 recs · 2025
2Q Summary 2026 · 18 recs · 2026
Up about 50% this year · 17 recs · 2023
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