Let me introduce you to Jim :) Not denying that he has made many valuable contributions that we are all grateful for. But here's just a sampling of what he's claimed every year since 2011. ..

Point taken, in this context it makes sense to infer that he has continually viewed the S&P500 as overvalued since 2011. I don't have the same access to data (or time) - but I know of other situations where he has issued a "strong buy" signal that have worked out very well during this period.

A very consistent assessment (hate to speak for Jim but this is my interpretation) is that the SP500 by historical measures has been overvalued since 2011 and continues to be so. The most commonly referenced measure is Price to Sales. He has offered potential rationale for why this has been the case but his general view is that this will revert back to historical levels or at the least not rise to the extent it has.

However there is no question that in the time period referenced (2011-2024) returns have been very strong despite this break from historical trends.

Note: I don't agree with all of Jim's assessments - and in fact have had 30% - 50% of my portfolio in the SP500 for a very long time (25+ years). As of right now index investments make up 42% of my holdings as listed here:

tecmo replies on 2023 end of year results

I tend to challenge opinions to help me strengthen my insights - I hope this doesn't come across as confrontational - that is not my intention. Hope you enjoy your drink!

tecmo
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