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- Manlobbi
Personal Finance Topics / Macroeconomic Trends and Risks
No. of Recommendations: 14
Latest ADP employment release showed that small US firms (under 50 employees) reduced employment by 120,000 last month.
Sure, there are good and bad news items every day of the week. But that one really struck me as a plausible support for the notion that the cycle is truly starting to turn, in a K-shaped kind of way.
Jim
No. of Recommendations: 3
Anecdote: just got off the phone with brother in the UK - small business owner, engineering/contract manufacturing. He said he has been surprised how many small businesses around him have gone under lately, competitors, suppliers and customers. Could be UK specific, of course, or industry specific.
No. of Recommendations: 4
its been clear that all the vaunted american consumer spending is coming from the upper K, and somehow that is seen by the market as a sustainable scenario.
but even that would not have masked gdp stats w/out the AI capex bubble.
https://coughlincapital.substack.com/p/the-illusio...
No. of Recommendations: 0
Jim,
That K will turn into L for everyone soon enough.
If you invest for decades, a few years are about to be lost. Maybe longer.
No. of Recommendations: 1
Adrian,
Cousins came in from Ireland to join us for Thanksgiving.
The cousin my age, her husband supplied Irish dog food made from very healthy ingredients. In the tariff war, a company from Texas took its business away with a crap product. The revenue loss is $40 million. His brother-in-law owns the company, and he has been there all along since high school. All they can do is accept it. Texas is shortening the lives of your pets one pet at a time.
No. of Recommendations: 8
Latest ADP employment release showed that small US firms (under 50 employees) reduced employment by 120,000 last month.
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I've seen this blamed an the accelerated deporting of foreign born people from the US asymmetrically affecting small businesses more than larger ones, and that their departure will leave open positions for "red blooded" Americans. While that may be true in a minority of cases, very small businesses geographically located in immigrant neighborhoods, will likely be permanently challenged. The argument is simply misdirection of a larger impact that the combination of higher prices and a slowing economy is having on large swaths of the US population.
Jeff
