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If the report today "meets expectations", it's perfect for Trump, as it opens the door to blaming Biden, forever. But, is the "revision" real, or the payoff for the cush job?

US job growth through March expected to be revised down sharply

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The level of U.S. employment for the 12 months through March could be slashed by as many as one million jobs when the government publishes its preliminary nonfarm payrolls benchmark estimate on Tuesday, economists predicted.

It would suggest the labor market was already struggling before President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. An immigration crackdown by the White House has undercut labor supply, while a shift by businesses to artificial intelligence tools and automation is curbing demand for workers.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-growth-march...

The guest I saw on Yahoo's finance channel, a week or two ago, said that due to tight labor supply, "JCs" will react by not creating very many jobs, because they can't fill them. They will either automate the jobs, or do without.

Steve

The report revises down by 911,000, less than the Million in the article above, but still spun as "bigger than expected".

And, the article reminds that the annual report, a year ago, featured a big downward revision too.

US nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months ended March 2025 were slashed by 911,000 jobs, according to preliminary revisions released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists had predicted a downward shift of 682,000 jobs for the period, according to analysts tracked by Bloomberg data.

Last year's release of this same preliminary annual revision fell during the heated final stretch of the presidential campaign — and became an immediate flash point when it showed the US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than thought.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-t...

Steve

I have a lot of "older" friends in the high tech world that have been laid off and are seeking a job. I don't see any of them taking the lower paying jobs that are currently plentiful. They are better off just selling their expensive homes and living off investments until SS kicks in.
Alan

The more likely explanation is that the job numbers were always lower and they're just now coming out. Biden's economy was...rather meh. His gravity-defying job numbers never made sense.

Now the truth is out.

The more likely explanation is that the job numbers were always lower and they're just now coming out. Biden's economy was...rather meh. His gravity-defying job numbers never made sense.
The causes of the current drop are well understood and documented. The continued move to outsourcing and AI would have happened regardless of policy. OTOH, the changes due to tariffs and immigration policy were entirely preventable. Trump has said his policies are important enough, a recession is an acceptable outcome.
Alan

The causes of the current drop are well understood and documented. The continued move to outsourcing and AI would have happened regardless of policy. OTOH, the changes due to tariffs and immigration policy were entirely preventable. Trump has said his policies are important enough, a recession is an acceptable outcome.

We were told by the media and the Biden administration that the jobs market was strong and healthy. That was clearly not true:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jobs-report-revisi...

Even CNBC has to say it
Most of the time span for the report came before President Donald Trump took office, indicating the jobs picture was deteriorating before he began levying tariffs against U.S. trading partners.

That's a total of 2 million jobs over the last 2 years of the Biden admin wiped away.

The more likely explanation is that the job numbers were always lower and they're just now coming out. Biden's economy was...rather meh. His gravity-defying job numbers never made sense.

When I first saw that piece on Yahoo Finance, I did a post, with a graph of the last 20+ years of "job creation". Putting the numbers in context, what we are seeing is a reversion to the mean, not a depression.

Remember, in 2020, Trump talking about the post plague economy will roar, due to "pent up demand"? There was a temporary bump in "jobs", to fill that "pent up demand". "Jobs" are now returning to the mean, with maybe a little overshoot to the downside, because the "JCs" are seeing the straight line rise to infinity they were projecting fail.

This graph shows what I'm talking about.

https://eyeonhousing.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/0...

Going forward, we could see even less "job creation", because the "JCs" can't find anyone to take their jobs, due to no-one being allowed into the country, combined with the government running as many people out of the country at they can. Knowing they can't find people to fill their "jobs", many "jobs" will be automated, or not done at all. The guest on Yahoo, said the new norm could be 30,000/month, with some months in 2026-27 showing no job growth at all. As suggested before, I think the Medicaid work requirement is a forced labor scheme, to force people to work/work more hours, to ease the transition to no immigrant labor. When a similar work requirement was pushed in Michigan a few years ago, the bill's sponsors said, openly, it was a forced labor scheme. A metro Detroit County Prosecutor has proposed another forced labor scheme for certain offenders.

Steve

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