No. of Recommendations: 5
The MULTI decade transition IS very clear, though you are right about the most recent period—which I agree shows a “flattening” which appears to look like “change” but is IMO a necessitated PAUSE.
The period you cite was a zero/ ultra low internet rate period that was not conducive to available-for-sale elephant purchases. It was a period of generally high business valuations. It paused Berkshire’s purchase activity GENERALLY…with a very nice exception—a fantastic opportunity which happened to be available in the general stock market: namely Apple. Unlike Burlington & GEICO—neither the market cap nor the corresponding low interest rate/market environment offered the opportunity, if he chose, to take it private and fold into the OpCos. So you take a period of low rates/high prices AND your opportunity-of-that-decade is a bigger company than yours, publicly owned? You buy a chunk in the stock market, yes.
The term “multi decade trend” is key. Buffett tries to remind us of this as he often prints graphs showing the trajectory of operating earnings from subsidiaries longer term and it’s a rocket launch—and a substantial flip from the business that existed just 25 years ago. Berkshire’s transitioned from a company that made money from holding stocks and some bonds-to a company that runs businesses. I think that trend re-accelerates and the perfect new CEO for such is chosen. But sure, if in the next 10 years the future Apple/Coke/Amex of 2035 is a stock quote—Berkshire will buy the stock.
